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February 11, 2003

Confidence Building Measures

One of the most difficult aspects of diplomacy is reducing tensions during a crisis in a way that allows you to keep face. Both the United States and the DPRK are in this unenviable position right now. Every new and aggressive move that the North makes, like transporting spent fuel rods to a reprocessing plant and reactivating it, is met by a countermove from the United States, such as repositioning and heightening the alert on several squadrons of B-1 and B-2 bombers.

How, when things seem to be spiraling out of control, does the diplomat bring them back into a managable situation? Confidence building measures.

Some of the things that the United States can do is redeploy some troops to less forward areas. They need not be combat troops, perhaps the rotation of a medical company that is due in the near future can be sped up and not replaced. This allows the United States to keep face (after all it is only a medical company) yet has the dual effect of making us seem gracious and less aggressive. This is how 'diplomacy' is done.

So what could the DPRK do? They could halt the transportation of fuel rods to the reprocessing facility. Perhaps that is too much to ask at first? If so, why not allow a few more of the Japanese or South Koreans they have kidnapped over the years return home?

All of these are just ideas. There are plenty of things that can be done to lessen the tensions on the peninsula. What is needed is the will.

It remains to be seen if anyone in Washington has it. Maybe they don't. After all, this isn't really a crisis.

Posted by Sean-Paul @ 02/11/2003 08:59 PM | TrackBack




Comments:


how do you make a deal with someone that is a two-faced, sidewinding, lowdown, no good, irrational piece of shit? any deals made with nKorea will be null and void within months. they have no desire to ever give up their nuke program. none. they are going to scorch the earth around them to get nukes. the nuke genie is out of the bottle and only quick and violent action will get it back in.

Posted by: Wesley Dabney on February 11, 2003 11:19 PM



...how do you make a deal with someone that is a two-faced, sidewinding, lowdown, no good, irrational piece of shit?

If you are North Korea you make a deal with him ;)

Posted by: Stan D on February 11, 2003 11:23 PM



Your assumption is that the DPRK will never give up on their nuclear program. I happen to disagree. With the right carrots (and the occasional stick) we might be able to prevent this situation from spinning out of control. Not all problems should be solved with violence. Some, yes, but not all.

I think the DPRK can be persuaded to 'put the genie' back in the bottle. I'm willing to give it one more chance. After that violence would probably be appropriate.

Posted by: Sean-Paul on February 11, 2003 11:25 PM



Stan: LOL.

Posted by: Sean-Paul on February 11, 2003 11:25 PM



i'm just looking at their track record. they have never stopped their program more than for a moment just to get a deal that is favorable to them. did you know that the light water reactors they wanted under the AF don't even work on the norks power grid? if they knew that.. then why did they want them? you get one guess.

Posted by: Wesley Dabney on February 12, 2003 08:43 AM




Two quick things on confidence building measures (CBM). Usually, to be effective CBMs need to do to things -- (1) be credible and (2) be defensive and non threatening. So, for example, just saying "we are serious" doesn't boost anyone's confidence because anyone can say they're serious, there is no cost to doing so. Similarly, potentially offensive actions (like, say, placing bombers on high alert) may not necessarily boost the confidence of the other side as to your beneficent intentions.

Posted by: Paul on February 12, 2003 10:42 AM






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