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Oh Canada. Oh Subsidieselevated from diaries ~ Welsh is our Canadian election correspondent Oh Canada. Oh Subsidies
Reuters has an article on Solberg, who may be the next Canadian finance minister:
It's always amusing when hard economic and political reality bumps up against ideology. Here's what Monty's looking at, in horror. First - the import index for all Canadian exports to the US from 93...
.... next the import index from December 2003...
Not too pretty. Now, if everyone was having such price inceases, it wouldn't be so much of a problem...
... but, as the above chart shows they aren't. China's not just holding its costs even, it's even reducing them slightly. It's wonderful what happens when you're willing to spend billions to hold your currency even with the US, and when your labor, land and tax costs are kept low by, well, poverty. China isn't the only one doing fine - the ASEAN countries are holding ground as well. However Europe, South America and Canada are all getting hammered. Strangely those are the three groups who aren't engaging in massive intervention in their currency rates with the US. Monty has something to say about that:
But the reason Monty is considering industrial subsidies is shown by this. The dollar may have risen 30%, but because of rising commodity prices and other issues, manufacturing prices to the US from Canada have risen considerably more....
Monty is between a rock and a hard place. If the Conservatives had gotten a majority he could laugh off the Golden Horseshoe's pain, and wait for the massive asset inflation stimulus the Conservatives have planned to hit the economy. But with the possibility of an election in the next couple of years, a huge hit to the manufacturing sector can't be allowed. And with Canadian manufactured imports to the US costing almost twice what they did two years ago, it's not hard to see why the Conservatives are swallowing hard and figuring a few subsidies might not be such a bad idea. This, by the way, is what happens when you have so-called free trade and at the same time some nations are allowed to massively manipulate their currencies while others are not. It is also, as I've discussed at length in the past, partially a result of the commodities boom that is currently ongoing in the world and Canada's position as an energy producer. Add in the upcoming bankruptcy of GM and Ford and we have a real disaster about to unfold in southern Ontario. Ian Welsh January 27, 2006 - 12:03pm
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