Not In Our National Interest


This story in the Washington Post is probably the dumbest thing the Bush Administration could possibly do with Uzbekistan. Not only is it horribly shortsighted (sometimes I want to scream at Bush like I would at a baseball game, you know it: ump, you need some glasses?) but it will damage our long term interests in the region too.

Karimov is playing Bush for a fool. (Like that's so hard, remember Chalabi?) Islam "the poached one" Karimov has got the Russians in one pocket and Bush in another. Meanwhile the Uzbek people are getting squeezed in the deal. Badly.

I've said it before: the best way to secure our long-term interests in Uzbekistan (and we do have them, believe me, we do) is to build bridges with civil society there, and not, as we always do, prop up two bit dictators who suck out every last bit of cash and entreprenuerial spirit from an economy like Dracula in a blood bank.

We're playing round two of the Great Game with the Russians who are, actually, by the way, playing soccer somewhere else (don't worry, they're loosing to themselves) and it's the first period and we're down by thirty points.

So, let's really mix this metaphor up like a bad drink: In the hopes of finding some mythical fountain of oil (think Vasco De Gama on a camel) we've essential sold out the legitimate aspirations of the Uzbek people.

This will end badly.


Sean-Paul Kelley June 14, 2005 - 1:01am

In March of 2002, then Secretary of State Colin Powell and Uzbekistan Foreign Minister Adulaziz Kamilov signed the Declaration on the Strategic Partnership and Cooperation.  The general framework contains various commitments, but among them are promises to improve the status of Human Rights in Uzbekistan.  Ironically, it was Uzbekistan that pushed for the language on Human Rights. The Foreign and Defense ministries were behind this move and it suggests that Karimov doesn't wield as much total power as is usually assumed.

Human Rights abuses flowing from Tashkent have been known about for years. Because of this, Congress included language in the Foreign Operations, Export Financing and Related Programs Appropriations Act that requires the State Department to determine whether any progress is being made in regards to the Declaration on the Strategic Partnership and Cooperation agreement and if not, Congress would withhold funds.  

This had the eventual effect of pitting State against the Pentagon. But the Appropriations Act has no bearing at all on the programs funded by the Pentagon itself anyway. So, it seems that again foreign policy is being driven by the military arm of the US instead of a more Democracy-style approach.

Much of the argument involves the importance of the Karshi-Khanabad airbase near the Tajik border, often referred to as K2, and it's role in the WOT and the stabilising effect our presence there has on the region as a whole.  The base was used extensively in operations against the Taliban in 2001 and is still home to a contigent from the U.S. Army's 10th Mountain Division.  Karimov was undoubtedly relieved when we decimated the ranks of the IMU, whose stated aim is to overthrown the Uzbek government.  But, both China and Russia have great concerns about that base and others operating right under their noses and want some sort of agreement as to when the US military will leave the region.  Cold war zero-sum thinking seems to hold in this regard, it's one or the other with cooperation nowhere in sight.

But to my mind the strategic importance of K2 isn't fully understood through it's role in the WOT. Exactly how much improved is our influence in Central Asia by having an airbase north of the Tajik/Uzbek border, versus having that and more on the northern border of Afghanistan, south of the Tajik border?  Is it worth undermining our principles regarding human rights?  Is it worth emasculating valid State Department authority for the hegemonic lily-pad strategy of Pentagon hawks?  Is massacring civilians considered a tolerable stabilising force?

That Uzbek officials insisted on Human Rights language in an agreement  -any agreement-  with the US strikes me as significant and is a real opening for freedom to start marching in that general direction.  That we are ignoring this belies all the rhetoric to the contrary and supports the growing realization that America, like the company she keeps, is more than willing to sacrifice democratic princple, and more importantly, people, in the pursuit of power.

Hello?  Congress?

ww June 14, 2005 - 7:07am

State vs Pentagon -ww

UZBEKISTAN: US SHARPENS CALL FOR INDEPENDENT PROBE OF ANDIJON BLOODSHED, WHILE RUSSIA OBJECTS

Andrew Tully 6/11/05

RFE/RL - The United States recently made its strongest call yet for an independent international investigation of the May 13 killings in Andijon.

State Department spokesman Sean McCormack was asked June 9 about a letter sent by six US senators -- including four from Bush's Republican Party -- urging the administration to reconsider its relationship with Uzbekistan.

"Very basically we share the concerns of the senators," McCormack said. "We are calling for a credible, transparent, and independent investigation into the Andijon tragedy. We also stand ready to take part in such an investigation in cooperation with the Uzbek government and credible international partners."

The senators' letter -- addressed to Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld -- expressed concern about the United States entering into a long-term agreement for US troops to occupy a military base in Uzbekistan. Karimov offered Washington use of the base shortly after the attacks of September 11 2001.

Karimov has said 173 people, including government forces, were killed in Andijon on May 13. Human Rights Watch issued a detailed report on the incident on June 7 that said hundreds were killed. The advocacy group called the confrontation a "massacre."

On June 8, McCormack indicated that the Bush administration doesn't accept Karimov's account of the events. He said the United States believes that "hundreds of innocent civilians were killed" that day. He said this conclusion is based on what he called "reliable eyewitness accounts."

On June 9, McCormack gave no indication of Washington's eventual response.

Continued...

ww June 14, 2005 - 8:07am

I think that Karimov has the Defense Department in his pocket and the administration isn't doing enough to keep everyone on the same page. This has long been a problem with our Uzbekistan policy, but it only becomes obvious in times like this.

The USCIRF mentioned this problem last month. The administration would do well to listen.

Nathan Hamm June 14, 2005 - 8:56am

US shifts planes from Uzbek air base due to restrictions

WASHINGTON : The United States has shifted its air-and-rescue planes and heavy cargo flights away from an air base in Uzbekistan to Afghanistan and Kyrgyzstan because of restrictions imposed by the Uzbeks, The Washington Post said.

The restrictions, some of which were foreseen by US military commanders, were recently ordered by Uzbek President Islam Karimov after US criticism of the alleged massacre of protesters by Uzbek troops at Andijan on May 13, US officials told the daily.

A ban on nighttime operations out of the Karshi-Khanabad air base in southeastern Uzbekistan surprised US authorities and was particularly vexing because search-and-rescue flights and tanker operations must be availble to fly at all hours, the officials said.

A restriction on cargo planes at the Uzbek base had been anticipated because for some time the Uzbek government had been pressing US military to repair the damage done to the runway by the heavy airplanes, the sources said.

The United States considered access to the Uzbek air base as crucial in the fight against international terrorism.

The search-and-rescue flights and tanker operations have been relocated to Afghanistan's Baghram air base, near Kabul, while cargo flights, usually HC-130 aircraft, are being diverted to Manas in Kyrgyzstan, adding hours of driving time for the goods to be trucked to Afghanistan, the US officials said.

Smaller cargo planes such as C-130s are still allowed to land at the Uzbek base, they added, but US commanders are also considering shifting them to other locations.

The decision to transfer US military flights away from Uzbekistan came as the White House on Tuesday pressed for an international probe into the alleged massacre at Andijan.

more

http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/afp_world/view/152861/1/.html

Tina June 15, 2005 - 4:23pm

Posted: 14 June 2005 1728 hrs

Russia, US blocked NATO call for probe into Uzbek massacre: report

~~~~

According to The Washington Post's sources, the US delegation at the NATO meeting, which included Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld and State Department officials disagreed over the proposed call to investigative action.

Defense officials prevailed over the State Department view that a probe was in order by arguing that an investigation could compromise US access to a military base in Uzbekistan they said was crucial in the fight against international terrorism, the daily said.

Russia argued against the probe by saying that the Andijan incident had been "inspired" by Afghanistan, the daily said.

http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/afp_world/view/152695/1/.html

Tina June 14, 2005 - 8:19am

American Planes Fly out of Uzbekistan in Disgrace

// The crisis in Uzbekistan

DOCUMENTS / KOMMERSANT Daily, JUNE 16, 2005

Yesterday it was learned that U.S. Air Force planes stationed in Uzbekistan were moved from the Karshi-Khanabal military base to bases in neighboring Kyrgyzstan and Afghanistan. The move was made after the Uzbek authorities prohibited the Americans from making night flights. This is Tashkent's way of responding to intensifying pressure from the West for an independent investigation of the events in Andijan.

On Tuesday evening, the foreign ministers of the 25 EU member countries, who were gathered in Brussels for an EU summit, commissioned the EU Council of Ministers to follow the situation in Uzbekistan and, if necessary, recommend measures to limit cooperation with this country. Jean Asselborm, Luxembourg's foreign minister and chairman of the Council of Ministers, said the EU might suspend cooperation with Uzbekistan. Having said this, Asselborn added that possible restrictions would probably not include an embargo or similar sanctions, since ordinary citizens suffered the most from this type of measure. The Council of Ministers gave the republic's leaders two weeks to make the necessary changes in their actions and reminded them of the obligations to respect the principles of democracy, human rights, and the rule of law Uzbekistan had taken upon itself when it signed the Partnership and Cooperation Agreement with the EU, and which were also contained in the founding documents of the OSCE

more

http://www.kommersant.com/page.asp?id=585333

Tina June 15, 2005 - 11:26pm

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