Posted: 19 October 2004 1514 hrs

Myanmar PM sacked, arrested for corruption: Thai government

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BANGKOK : Myanmar's Prime Minister General Khin Nyunt - among the most reformist of the military leaders - has been sacked and placed under house arrest for alleged corruption, a Thai government spokesman said on Tuesday.

"The Thai government has learned through diplomatic channels from the Thai ambassador in Yangon that the Myanmar prime minister Khin Nyunt was dismissed and detained under house arrest on corruption allegations," spokesman Jakrapob Penkair told reporters.

The premier, number three in the Myanmar leadership, was arrested in a shock move on Monday night after he returned to the capital from a visit to the central town of Mandalay, according to sources.

Khin Nyunt, 65, was the face of the ruling military overseas and supported dialogue with the detained opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi.

But he appeared increasingly marginalised with the rise of hardliners within the leadership, according to analysts.

Senior General Than Shwe, head of the ruling military known as the State Peace and Development Council, strongly opposes allowing Aung San Suu Kyi any role in the political process.

Analysts saw the move as a consolidation of his power and said it was likely to signal a continued hard line against supporters of Aung San Suu Kyi, who has now been detained for 16 months during her third period of house arrest.

The sacking was also the culmination of growing tensions between rival factions within the leadership, sources in Myanmar said.

An analyst in Yangon said the sacking was likely to have major repercussions and followed feuding between military intelligence, headed by Khin Nyunt for 20 years, and the main body of the military leadership.

"He (Khin Nyunt) was recognised as having some kind of international experience," the analyst said.

"They must have reached an impasse to come to such a situation that is putting in danger the unity of the army. This is a first."

Myanmar closed its border checkpoints as the drama played out and telephone communication with Yangon became difficult amid swirling rumours of high-level changes.

Thai security sources said Lieutenant General San Pwint, who has been involved in a drugs crackdown and negotiations with opposition ethnic groups, would replace Khin Nyunt. He is not seen as a strong ally of either faction.

"I don't think there wil be any unrest or bloodshed in Myanmar concerning this change as Myanmar is known for its decisive action," Chavalit Yongchaiyudh, Thai deputy prime minister, told reporters amid reports of trucks of troops driving around Yangon.

Khin Nyunt was appointed as premier in August 2003, soon after Myanmar was condemned internationally for the detention of Aung San Suu Kyi following a violent clash between her supporters and a pro-military mob.

The premier announced a seven-point "road map to democracy" but the programme has stalled amid international complaints that it is a sham while Aung San Suu Kyi remains under house arrest.

Her party, the National League for Democracy, won national elections in 1990 but was not allowed to rule by the military.

"This is the hardliners consolidating power and we are concerned it means the country is going back to isolation and away from the democracy road map," said Sunai Phasuk, an advisor to the Thai Senate Committee on Foreign Affairs.

"If Than Shwe remains Than Shwe, a man who puts military ahead of political negotiations, then the road ahead is very serious," he said.

Myanmar has been ruled by the military since 1962 and has faced mounting international sanctions from the EU and United States because of the lack of movement in democratic reforms.

The United States on Monday called on the European Union and other democracies to consider imposing a full import ban on Myanmar to pressure the ruling military to release Aung San Suu Kyi. - AFP

http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/afp_asiapacific/view/112363/1/.html

Myanmar Announces New Prime Minister to Replace Feared Khin Nyunt

By Grant Peck Associated Press Writer

Published: Oct 19, 2004

BANGKOK, Thailand (AP) - Myanmar's tough but pragmatic prime minister was sacked Tuesday by his hard-line army colleagues, clouding prospects for the freedom of opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi and for democracy in the military-led Southeast Asian nation.

The ouster of Gen. Khin Nyunt, 65, who was also military intelligence chief, seemed to spell an end to a power struggle between so-called moderates and a faction uninterested in negotiating reconciliation with democracy activists or nations critical of the regime.

Khin Nyunt was taken into custody late Monday and charged with corruption, according to officials in Thailand, who were the first to publicly break the news.

At the end of a day that saw rumors about Khin Nyunt's fate swirl through Myanmar's capital, Yangon, the country's state radio and television confirmed his removal Tuesday night.

A brief statement said Khin Nyunt was "permitted to retire for health reasons" - a euphemism used for the ouster of Cabinet members. It was signed by the junta's supreme leader, Senior Gen. Than Shwe, and gave no other details.

A separate broadcast announced that the new prime minister is Lt. Gen. Soe Win, a former air defense chief who entered the regime's top ranks only last year.

U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan expressed concern at the changes and called on the government to release Suu Kyi "without further delay." He also urged it to keep its commitment to pursue national reconciliation and democratization and to quickly resume a "substantive dialogue" with Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy and other political parties.

With his reputation as relatively moderate, the taciturn Khin Nyunt was the go-to man for diplomats and others interested in political dialogue, even before he became prime minister during a Cabinet shake-up in August 2003.

Soe Win, thought to be about 56, is believed to espouse a hard line in dealing with the pro-democracy movement led by Suu Kyi, a Nobel Peace Prize winner, and with Western countries that have imposed years of sanctions to pressure the military to hand power to an elected government and free Suu Kyi.

Suu Kyi's party, the National League for Democracy, won elections in 1990 but was not allowed to take power.

Khin Nyunt's political sophistication towered over that of his senior colleagues, whose experience has mostly been in overseeing jungle combat against rebellious ethnic groups in Myanmar, formerly known as Burma.

Soon after assuming the premiership, Khin Nyunt laid out a seven-step "road map to democracy."

But democracy activists disdained the plan, in large part because it had no provision for the release of Suu Kyi, who was put back under house arrest after a bloody attack on her and her followers by government supporters in May last year.

Some diplomats and opposition figures believe Soe Win helped organize the attack, which the junta insisted was spontaneous.

U Lwin, a spokesman for Suu Kyi's party, said late Tuesday that Khin Nyunt might never have been able to implement his ideas for reconciliation because of his relative weakness within the ruling circle.

Asked about future relations with the junta, U Lwin said, "We will know only after we have the chance to deal with the new group."

In Bangkok, a Thai government critic of the junta said the changes meant matters had "reached a point of no return toward any signs of national reconciliation."

"This is a clear rejection of the world community's call for improvement of governance and cessation of human rights violations," said Kraisak Chunhavan, chairman of the Thai Senate's Foreign Affairs Committee.

The tensions within Myanmar's leadership - between veteran field commanders such as Than Shwe, 71, and his number two, Deputy Senior Gen. Maung Aye, on one side and Khin Nyunt's military intelligence faction on the other - had existed for years, said Aung Zaw, a Myanmar journalist.

Though never publicly acknowledged, "This was a dog-eat-dog business," said Aung Zaw, editor of The Irrawaddy, a magazine published by Myanmar exiles in Thailand.

Khin Nyunt climbed to power as a protege of the late dictator Ne Win, who appointed him military intelligence chief in 1984 after relatively little combat experience.

After pro-democracy demonstrations forced Ne Win to withdraw from public life in 1988, and the army bloodily suppressed the protests, the new junta included Khin Nyunt among its top leadership.

Several scholars and activists believe Khin Nyunt and his henchmen played an unsavory role in the 1988 events, using dirty tricks to provoke protesters into violence to serve as an excuse for a brutal crackdown.

AP-ES-10-19-04 2331EDT

http://ap.tbo.com/ap/breaking/MGB0GNLXI0E.html

Fears for Aung Suu Kyi after Burmese moderate is ousted

By Jan McGirk, South East Asia Correspondent

20 October 2004

The Burmese junta has sacked Prime Minister Khin Nyunt and arrested him on corruption charges after a purge of the military intelligence headquarters in Rangoon.

The hermetic regime placed Khin Nyunt under house arrest in Rangoon and named Lt Gen Soe Win, 56, as his replacement. A brief announcement on state television said Khin Nyunt was "permitted to retire for health reasons", a common euphemism for sidelining a cabinet member.

The ousting of the comparatively moderate general, who also headed the country's powerful spy agency, ended a flurry of rumours which began on Monday night after the arrest of senior officers. Diplomatic sources said Khin Nyunt's replacement as military intelligence chief is expected to be Maj Gen Myint Swe, 53, a hardliner who commands forces near the capital, Rangoon.

Analysts suggest that Burma's generals have flexed their muscles to prevent reconciliation with the opposition leader, Aung San Suu Kyi, the Nobel Peace laureate who has been locked up since May 2003.

The supreme leader of the military government, strongman Than Shwe, is said to refuse to even utter her name.

Soe Win, a former air defence chief, is believed by some diplomats to have been behind a mob attack on Suu Kyi's convoy during a speaking tour of northern Burma in May, 2003, when she was detained by authorities.

A Rangoon-based diplomat said security was beefed up outside the Office of the Chief of Military Intelligence, which soldiers reportedly raided early yesterday. No mention was made of the Prime Minister in the government-controlled press yesterday, which raised suspicions of his imminent fall.

Officers loyal to the number two in the junta, Vice-Senior General Maung Aye, are said to have detained Khin Nyunt, who has been under pressure for at least a month as the Burmese Army vied for power with the country's omnipresent secret police. More than 70 military intelligence officers at Muse, a check post on the Chinese frontier, were arrested in September after stockpiles of jade, gold, and cash were seized by army regulars. Scores more personnel were removed from their lucrative immigration and customs positions, and three senior intelligence colonels remain in prison, awaiting charges. Khin Nyunt's son, Ye Naing Win, was reportedly detained, while the government took control of his internet server, Bagan Cybertech.

Khin Nyunt was named premier in August last year, but his appointment as figurehead was viewed as a demotion in the military dictatorship. The failure of Khin Nyunt's pet project, a new constitutional convention meant to give the present government legitimacy, coupled with the army's rejection of a ceasefire with the rebel Karen National Union signalled that his authority was waning. Even though the National Convention was discredited by the West, because Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy boycotted it, the mere contemplation of multi-party rule caused a rupture in Burma's leadership. It was only a matter of time until Khin Nyunt was toppled.

But one Western diplomat wondered: "Why would they bother sidelining him? He doesn't have a big power base. Than Shwe wants 100 percent control. They don't want 99 percent." Pro-democracy protests led by Suu Kyi were bloodily suppressed in 1988, and Khin Nyunt was among the youngest of the generals who grabbed power.

Some Burma hands said the current upheaval is primarily over business interests in a resource-rich country where the military controls the economy.

"I don't think they're squabbling over Aung San Suu Kyi and democracy - more likely a conflict over how much territory and area they can control in terms of business and armed forces," said Burmese exile Aung Zaw, the editor of Irrawaddy magazine, which is published in Thailand.

There are fears that Khin Nyunt's removal may lead to renewed clashes between ethnic groups and the government forces in Burma, which has a long history of insurgency. The government signed ceasefire pacts with several guerrilla groups in the 1990s, but is still negotiating a deal with the Karen National Union.

Meanwhile, Burma, signalling its displeasure with what it deems foreign interference in internal affairs, this week banned a new activist CD called For the Lady. Groups ranging from U2 to Pearl Jam and Coldplay play on the benefit album which will be released on 26 October in honour of Suu Kyi, whose party won a landslide victory in the 1990 elections, but was never permitted to govern.

Border guards reportedly were ordered by military intelligence to confiscate the double CD. According to the US Campaign for Burma, anyone who plays a freedom song inside Burma risks a seven-year prison sentence.

http://news.independent.co.uk/world/asia/story.jsp?story=573891

Deviation in the democracy roadmap

By Phar Kim Beng

In another sign that Myanmar's military junta is eliminating internal differences, Prime Minister General Khin Nyunt was replaced by a top member of the country's ruling junta, Lieutenant General Soe Win, 56; described as a trusted deputy to the country's top general, Than Shwe.

Senior General Than Shwe, 71, currently heads the ruling junta and controls the army. As the country's highest-ranking leader and a military hardliner, he is strongly opposed to allowing any political role for opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi.

Together with Vice Senior General Maung Aye, who is widely considered the second-most powerful man in the country and a career solider, both have exerted a grip on Myanmar. And now that Soe Win has been installed as prime minister, the first three positions in the junta belong to the hardliners for the first time since 1988.

"Low-ranking officers have been removed before, but never this high. This is new for this dog-eat-dog business," Aung Zaw, editor of the Irrawaddy, a news magazine published by Myanmar journalists in exile, told Inter Press Service. "The timing is also surprising," he added, since Yangon had let Khin Nyunt acquire a high international profile by nominating him as the prime minister last year.

Although Khin Nyunt was part of the group that in 1988 crushed pro-democracy demonstrations during widespread street clashes that left more than 1,000 people dead, unlike the hardliners, he was at least prepared to discuss the release from house arrest of pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi. All other hardliners were against such a move.

According to The Washington Post, "Khin Nyunt was the principal figure on whom Southeast Asian officials counted to build a policy of engagement with a reclusive regime. Regional officials preferred that approach to strong economic sanctions, such as those imposed on Burma [Myanmar] by the United States."

Khin Nyunt's reputation as a relative moderate was partly a result of his having negotiated ceasefire agreements with 17 armed ethnic organizations, including several major groups. Prior to his arrest, he was in the process of opening negotiations with the Karen ethnic minority.

Nevertheless, Khin Nyunt's removal should not be seen as a surprise, especially in the context of Myanmar's history of factionalism. The junta that took power in 1988 (initially called the State Law and Order Council, or Slorc), has seen its share of power struggles. In November 1997, much of the top tier of both Slorc and the cabinet were fired; some individuals were placed under house arrest. Slorc was renamed the State Peace and Development Council, or SPDC.

The only members of Slorc still active in the current government are Than Shwe and Maung Aye.

Khin Nyunt, however, was no defender of political and civil liberties, either, during his years as the head of Myanmar's military intelligence wing. He was seen as part of the powerful troika that suppressed a nation of nearly 50 million people.

But with Khin Nyunt's removal, the so-called "roadmap" to restore the democratization process in Myanmar is now effectively dead. Just last month, Khin Nyunt played a major role in reconvening the National Convention, which had been stalled since 1996. The goal was to draft a new constitution, the first step in the junta's seven-step roadmap to reintroduce democracy, despite a boycott by the main opposition party.

The opposition National League for Democracy (NLD), led by Suu Kyi, boycotted the convention after the military government refused to release Suu Kyi and NLD vice chairman Tin Oo from house arrest. The Shan Nationalities League for Democracy, which is allied with the NLD, also joined the boycott.

With Khin Nyunt gone, the first step is therefore eliminated. This lends credence to the belief that the junta's hardliners were never interested in peace anyway.

"Khin Nyunt[s] attempt to convince the international community that the SPDC is serious about change has finally been unraveled with his arrest," Win Naing, managing editor of New Vision, told IPS. "He never had any power to decide change," added Win Naing, whose monthly journal is published by Burmese journalists in exile. "Than Shwe has remained in control and he has proved this by crushing Khin Nyunt," he stressed.

To be sure, the National Convention has also run into its own difficulties: the 13 ethnic groups that participated in the convention all sought to have their own separate provinces and prime ministers, something the junta clearly opposes. Instead, the junta is seeking a tightly centralized polity, apparently to prevent the breakup of Myanmar due to its ethnic diversity.  

Myanmar's 50 million people reflect the country's ethnic diversity, which includes the Burmans, the largest minority group, and seven others with sizeable numbers - the Chin, Kachin, Karen, Karenni, Mon, Rakhine and Shan.

The idea of achieving equality among all these ethnic groups was a feature recognized in the 1947 Panglong Accord, the document that defined Myanmar's - then known as Burma's - independence from British rule. However, military-dominated regimes have failed to uphold the accord in practice, resulting in decades-long armed conflicts between Yangon and ethnic rebels.

Hints of Than Shwe going after Khin Nyunt to consolidate the power of the junta's hardliners began to emerge in late September following the firing of foreign minister Win Aung, a moderate and ally of Khin Nyunt. Myanmar watchers also saw cracks appearing within the military regime over the growing international criticism being leveled against it, ranging from UN secretary general Kofi Annan, to the US government to the European Union.

"The power struggle between the intelligence wing and the army had been brewing for some time," said Aung Zaw, the editor. " Now the hawks in the army have come on top."

That raises the question, will the 10 countries in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) seek to remove Myanmar, a threat raised by former Malaysian prime minister Mahathir Mohammad in July 2003? Expulsion is not likely as ASEAN's policy on Myanmar was first derived from the policy of "constructive engagement" initiated in 1991 by the Thai government of prime minister Anand Panyarachun. This policy was later regionalized as an ASEAN policy.

For Thailand, the reasoning that led to the formulation of the policy on constructive engagement was based on both realities and aspirations, according to its former deputy foreign minister, Sukhumband Paribatra: "Myanmar and Thailand [have] been permanent neighbors, sharing a 2,400 kilometer border. Most of this border has not been demarcated and passes through difficult mountainous and jungle terrain, inhabited by common ethnic groups, which historically both governments have not found it easy to rule."

The border of the two countries is also porous, with more than 70 passes, mostly in remote areas. Therefore events in Myanmar often have repercussions on Thailand.

Aside from ASEAN, Japan remains one of the few developed countries in direct talks with the junta in Yangon. Its senior foreign policy officials have been flying regularly to Bangkok and Kuala Lumpur, even Hanoi, to fine-tune Tokyo's policy of engagement.

In 2001, the latest year for which figures were available, Tokyo gave Myanmar US$78 million in aid. Before 1988, the year of the pro-democracy crackdown, Japan's grants to Myanmar made up 60% of all foreign aid and grants to the country.

But even Japan's influence on the hardliners, by way of economic largess, is progressively waning, as Myanmar's bilateral trade with China has already improved by 10 times in the past decade to reach $500 million, a figure some believe to be a low estimate.

With the removal of Khin Nyunt, whom UN special envoy Tan Sri Razali Ismail said was the key person he dealt with in Myanmar, it is clear that an important interlocutor is now gone. And for now, at least, hopes for bringing democracy to the country may be as well.

Phar Kim Beng is a regular contributor to Asia Times Online. He is currently on a Sumitomo Foundation fellowship, where he is studying the state of Japanese social sciences. He was trained in international relations and strategic studies, first at Cambridge University, later the Fletcher School and Harvard University.

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Southeast_Asia/FJ21Ae02.html

Washington's Myanmar bashing

By Ramtanu Maitra

Last month, speaking from Portsmouth, New Hampshire, US President George W Bush announced that he would withhold some US aid from Myanmar. Then at the United Nations on September 21, while promoting democracy for Myanmar, as he has done so often for Iraq, Afghanistan and the whole of the Middle East in recent months, Bush told the General Assembly: "The democratic hopes we see growing in the Middle East are growing everywhere. In the words of the Burmese democracy advocate Aung San Suu Kyi, 'We do not accept the notion that democracy is a Western value. To the contrary, democracy simply means good government rooted in responsibility, transparency and accountability.'"

It is fortunate that not many outside of the United States - except those dyed-in-the-wool liberals who consider Suu Kyi to be Myanmar and Myanmar to be Suu Kyi - believe what Bush says when he talks about democracy. Such strident pro-democracy rhetoric could just as well be a precursor for a unilateral strike on Myanmar, some say.

Many outside the United States have scant respect for the democracy rhetoric issued from Washington because when they look at the record of these noisemakers it doesn't take them long to figure out that this is really a series of threats, dressed up in the fancy garb of democracy.

Individuals such as Republican Senator Mitch McConnell from Kentucky and Sam Brownback, a Republican from Kansas - both of whom are on the front line in the United States promoting democracy and human rights in Myanmar - belong to the Christian right and were champions of "shock and awe" in Iraq. A visit to their websites makes clear their warlike sentiments.

It doesn't take long to apprehend their untrustworthiness, either. There is no question that Aung Sun Suu Kyi and her political party, the National League for Democracy (NLD), won Myanmar's general elections handsomely in 1990, and the military's nullification of the elections, which would have put the NLD into power, was wrong. At the same time, the events surrounding the 1990 elections merit substantial redefinition. The old shibboleth that the NLD won the 1990 elections but the junta refused to hand over power implies that the military authority then in power had agreed to the transfer of power before the elections; whereas the military authority had undeniably set conditions for the transfer of power through the promulgation of a new constitution, a process that Suu Kyi herself had articulated before she was placed under house arrest.

There is also no doubt that keeping Suu Kyi and a number of NLD leaders, many of whom were former high-ranking army officers, imprisoned is not in the best interest of the nation. At the same time, it is almost laughable to believe that US policymakers under President Bush have in their hearts only the interest of bringing democracy back to Myanmar.

Different yardsticks

If ushering in democracy in other nations is so precious to Washington, why then does it have different yardsticks for different nations? In 1999, for instance, General Pervez Musharraf took power in Pakistan through a bloodless coup. Musharraf had the duly elected prime minister, Nawaz Sharif, jailed and then exiled to Saudi Arabia. If Sharif tries to come back to Pakistan now, there is no question that he will end up in prison, if not hanged. Even his brother Shahbaz Sharif, who is also in Saudi Arabia, cannot show up in Pakistan.

A similar situation exists for Benazir Bhutto Zardari, another former prime minister of Pakistan, who spends her time shuttling between Dubai and London. She cannot go to Pakistan either. Musharraf, now Pakistan's president, was questioned by some US lawmakers on many other issues, but no mention was made of his exiling Sharif.

For Washington, clearly there are acceptable military dictators and unacceptable military dictators. Just as clearly, there are considerations more important than democracy for the US administration. The Myanmar junta is considered by Washington to be bad military dictators.

In the years since the 1990 elections, the junta has kept the NLD out of power and, for much of that time, Aung Sun Suu Kyi under house arrest. The junta has also cracked down on opium cultivation. In fact, according to the United Nations Narcotics Control Board, "opium cultivation in Myanmar shows a 29% decline [this year] in comparison to 2003". Opium cultivation this season in Myanmar is estimated at 44,200 hectares, representing a significant cumulative decline of 73% when compared with the 163,000 hectares under cultivation in 1996. The production of opium for the year 2004 amounted to 370 tonnes, representing a decline of 54% with respect to 2003. One would think that accomplishment deserving of US support - opposition to drug-trafficking is core to US policy, isn't it? Not necessarily, it turns out.

The apple of Washington's eye at this point is Afghan President Hamid Karzai. During his watch, and under the supervision of Washington, opium production in Afghanistan this year will be close to 4,500 tons. During the period of the US occupation since the winter of 2001, Afghanistan's opium production has shown a "healthy" growth rate of more than 20% annually. This opium, and heroin in its refined form, is destroying human beings, mostly in Europe, in larger numbers every year. But neither Senator McConnell nor Brownback has expressed any doubt publicly about the drug policy of the Karzai administration or criticized the Bush administration for allowing drug production to grow in leaps and bounds in Afghanistan.

Another core US "democracy and human rights" policy commitment is to the battle against HIV/AIDS. Yet Washington is blocking international aid to Myanmar to fight the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). Myanmar has already paid an extremely high price for its isolation. International organizations have cut back or eliminated their work in the country and much bilateral foreign aid has been eliminated too. One result is that HIV and AIDS, the disease the virus causes, have run rampant in Myanmar, and the country has received almost no help in getting the epidemic under control. Myanmar's HIV/AIDS crisis is now by far the worst in Southeast Asia.

Sanctions: Who benefits?

If US policy seems confusing from a distance, there are indications that it is less so close up: within Myanmar not many really believe the US sanctions are meant to right the wrong. To begin with, the NLD, which for cheap political reasons had endorsed US sanctions on Myanmar, has now come to realize that the sanctions never achieved what was intended. The official spokesman of the NLD, U Lwin, told Reuters on October 12 that economic sanctions, especially those imposed by the United States, had been ineffective in persuading the Yangon government to reform. "Nothing has happened. What we really need in our case is meaningful dialogues," U Lwin said.

His admission pulls the rug out from under the US sanctions policy. In 1997, former secretary of state Madeleine Albright justified sanctions on the Burmese (despite the change of its name to Myanmar in 1989, US authorities could never get away from addressing the country as Burma) junta by claiming that "the junta had run that country's economy to the ground".

Indeed, the sanctions U Lwin's party had supported, and even actively lobbied for in the United States, have further jeopardized the economic situation within Myanmar. Young women with no visible source of income have now become involved in prostitution in large numbers in order to survive. But this has not deterred the McConnell-Brownback crowd, which has attacked this phenomenon as though the Yangon government had sponsored "human trafficking".

The inadequacy of sanctions is widely appreciated among members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). "Well, you know that the position of me and Indonesia - not only Indonesia but the entire ASEAN - we don't believe that sanctions are very effective and, especially in a country like Myanmar, sanctions can even seriously hurt the livelihood of the ordinary people," said Indonesia's envoy to ASEAN, Ali Alatas, when he spoke to the Washington-based Radio Free Asia on October 12. Indonesia is the current chair of ASEAN.

Outside of ASEAN, India is in the midst of an important initiative toward Myanmar. On Monday, Myanmar's top authority, Senior General Than Shwe, will be in New Delhi. Six agreements will be on the table for signing during Than Shwe's visit, including a protocol on bilateral cooperation against terrorism.

Sources say that Than Shwe will be welcomed with a gun salute, accorded to a head of state, in the forecourt of the Rashtrapati Bhavan (the President's House). That will be followed by delegation-level talks and a lunch hosted by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh at Hyderabad House. President A P J Abdul Kalam will host a banquet in the general's honor the same evening.

On Tuesday, Than Shwe will fly to Bangalore to explore India's information-technology industry. A visit to the Hindustan Aeronautics establishment is also in the offing, given Yangon's interest in Indian military hardware, especially the advanced light helicopter. The next day, Than Shwe will visit Kolkata before returning to Yangon.

Old geopolitics

It is evident from the schedule set up for Than Shwe in India that New Delhi has now begun to realize the importance of stabilizing Myanmar. China understood the importance of a stable Myanmar years earlier.

Myanmar sits where three great regions of Asia meet. China in the north, Southeast Asia in the south, and India in the west all meet at Myanmar. Myanmar is the key to a smooth infrastructural land-based link-up among Central Asia in the west, Japan in the east and Russia in the north. If Asia - and it must - hopes to develop a strong economic developmental structure based on a viable physical economy, Myanmar must not only be a stable nation, but it must also be developed economically. Strong infrastructural development, a far-reaching educational base and the development of wide-ranging small-scale industries would put Myanmar fully in the picture. This would not only bring an Asian economic integration process in to play, but would work as the necessary first step to resolving Asia's security problems.

For US policymakers, brought up with British-taught choke-point theories, Myanmar is conceived to be the quintessential choke point, where the prevalence of US influence would prevent the integration of China, India and Southeast Asia, and indeed, the integration of the whole of Asia.

Washington would like to see a regime in Myanmar that would depend on the United States and reliably check Asian integration moves. That necessitates a regime change in Yangon. This is the crux of the present US policy toward Myanmar. The rest is hokum.

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Southeast_Asia/FJ22Ae05.html

 from BBC News on Thursday, October 21, 2004

Article ID: D155427

Burma's military has cut short talks with the Karen National Union (KNU), the nation's largest rebel group. The move appears to be connected to the surprise dismissal of Prime Minister Khin Nyunt on Tuesday.

A 16-member Karen delegation was told to leave Rangoon and return to the KNU base on the Thai border.

The KNU, which has been fighting for autonomy for more than 50 years, is the only major ethnic group yet to sign a formal ceasefire with the ruling junta.

Burma's military rulers announced on Tuesday that Khin Nyunt had left his post for "health reasons", and was being replaced by the more hardline Lt Gen Soe Win.

But officials in Thailand said Khin Nyunt had been forced from office as a result of a power struggle with the country's top general Than Shwe, and was under house arrest on charges of corruption.

Khin Nyunt was seen as responsible for persuading 17 ethnic groups to sign ceasefire agreements with the military regime.

His departure has ignited fears that the military will now take a tougher line against ethnic groups opposed to the current regime. So far no pact has been signed with the Karen rebels, although the two sides agreed a provisional truce in January.

The KNU delegates were in Rangoon for talks on the ongoing peace process.

But on Monday the junta asked the KNU delegation to leave the capital because it was not ready for a meeting that was due to start that day, according to spokesman Nierdah Mya.

"The talks have not been held because the government has political problems," Mr Nierdah told the French news agency AFP.

Ethnic minority groups make up about a third of Burma's population of 50 million.

OSAC

 Burma Shake-up Further Strains Asean-EU Links

 from Financial Times on Thursday, October 21, 2004

Article ID: D155419

The ousting of General Khin Nyunt as the Burmese prime minister by the military junta's hardline faction represents an embarrassment for the Association of South-East Asian Nations at a time when it has been trying to persuade the EU and the US to take a softer approach in dealing with Burma.

The possibility that Soe Win, Burma's new leader, could abandon cautious moves towards a democratic constitution and keep Aung San Suu Kyi, the leader of the country's democracy movement, under house arrest could put a strain on Asean's ties with its two biggest western trading partners.

The US has already said it will not attend the Asean summit in 2006, which will be chaired by Burma, if Ms Suu Kyi is not released. Some EU members, led by the UK, have suggested that the EU should follow suit.

Asean countries have told the US and EU that a boycott of the Asean summit could be counter-productive to promoting political reforms in Burma. The group has favoured constructive engagement rather than isolating Burma.

Whether the shake-up in the Burmese leadership will lead to a dispute between Asean and the US and EU on the issue is still uncertain.

"It's a question of how much the various parties - Asean, the US and the EU - want to make of it," said Michael Montesano, a professor of south-east Asian studies at the National University of Singapore.

But if the leadership change leads to a crackdown on the democracy movement, "it will make it more difficult for the US and the EU to fudge their relations with Asean," he added.

Asean is unlikely to condemn the change in government since the group adheres to a policy of non-interference in the domestic affairs of its 10 member states.

Asean "will treat this as a (Burmese) internal problem," said a regional analyst in Singapore. But if recent moves by the Burmese government to establish a new constitution are derailed, "it could put pressure on Asean to take a tougher stand."

Some Asean governments are already showing signs of losing patience with Burma's military government, with criticism made by officials in Malaysia, Thailand and Indonesia.

Singapore, however, has urged the EU not to focus on the Burma issue at the cost of damaging economic ties with Asean. Lee Kuan Yew, modern Singapore's founding father, is on the international advisory board for Total, the French oil group that is largest EU investor in Burma.

Some officials in Asean acknowledged Wednesday that the leadership change might set back Burma's seven-step "roadmap to democracy", which was aimed at paving the way for a civilian government after 40 years of military rule.

"We were hoping that under Prime Minister Khin Nyunt, Aung San Suu Kyi would be released. It didn't happen. Perhaps now we have much less hope that she would be released," said Hassan Wirajuda, Indonesia's foreign minister.

But Abdullah Badawi, the Malaysian premier, said Asean hoped that the moves towards a civilian government "will be carried out and not be adversely affected."

One early test of Asean's stance on Burma will come next month when the group holds its annual summit in Laos.

"I will make no attempt to pressure them but will constructively promote national reconciliation in (Burma). I hope to have a constructive dialogue with the,." said Thaksin Shinawatra, the Thai prime minister.

Thailand's Export-Import Bank, citing the "uncertain situation", temporarily closed a 4bn baht ($97m) credit line designed to help Burma buy Thai telecommunications equipment. Shin Corp, founded by Mr Thaksin, has a telecoms joint venture with a company owned by Gen Khin Nyunt's son.

Although the United Nations voiced worries over the removal of Gen Khin Nyunt, its special envoy to Burma said he would continue to assist the country on its plan for democracy.

The UN "can move forward despite this," said Razali Ismail, the former Malaysian ambassador to the UN.

However, analysts said it would be difficult for the revamped regime to deal with the outside world without Gen Khin Nyunt's intermediation.

"They (the hardliners) have so little understanding of the world. Khin Nyunt was one of the few senior people to get unadulterated information about the West and to hear opposing views. The other leaders don't understand, or don't care, how the world will react," said David Steinberg, director of Asia Studies at Georgetown University.

Myanmar pledges commitment to democracy plans despite leadership change  

By :  

Date : 22 October 2004 0816 hrs (SST)  

URL : http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/southeastasia/view/112878/1/.html  

YANGON: Myanmar's military leadership has vowed to stick to its "roadmap to democracy", despite abruptly appointing a new prime minister believed to hold a hard line in dealing with the country's political reform movement.

The former Prime Minister Khin Nyunt, who was the democracy plan's promoter, was removed on October 19 in a shake-up which allowed military strongman Than Shwe to consolidate his position at the top of the former Burma.

Myanmar's Foreign Minister Nyan Win told foreign diplomats on Thursday that Khin Nyunt resigned this week for health reasons, but that he also had to bear responsibility for a recent major corruption scandal.

His remarks were the first elaboration from the government on the change of leadership since a brief announcement on state radio and television on Tuesday night.

It was not clear whether Khin Nyunt, who was also military intelligence chief, would be facing trial.

Major General Myint Swe, Commander of Yangon Division Military Command, has reportedly been appointed as the new chief of military intelligence of the isolated country.

Myanmar's seven-point blueprint for transition to civilian rule after more than 40 years of army rule would remain unchanged, a diplomat quoted officials as saying on Thursday.

Ceasefire agreements brokered by Khin Nyunt and his military intelligence arm with various armed rebel ethnic groups would also remain in place.

Foreign Minister Nyan Win did not directly mention Aung San Suu Kyi, the Nobel Peace Prize winner who has been in detention since a bloody attack on her and her followers by a mob in May last year, diplomats said.

The new Prime Minister, Lieutenant General Soe Win, is believed to espouse a hard line in dealing with the pro-democracy movement led by Aung San Suu Kyi.

He has also shown little eagerness to please Western countries that have imposed years of sanctions to pressure the military government to hand power to an elected government and to free Aung San Suu Kyi.

In Bangkok, Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra defended Southeast Asia's policy of "constructive engagement" with Myanmar, saying that bashing the generals with sanctions - as Europe and the United States have done - would not work.

"We have to use the carrot approach, not the stick approach," Thaksin told foreign journalists. "I hope and I wish it will not stop the process."

Thaksin also said he was cautious about reacting to the political move until he had met with Myanmar's new Prime Minister.

Thailand had been influential in getting Khin Nyunt to design the "roadmap to democracy" within the last year.

However Bangkok has little luck in getting Myanmar to fulfill many elements of the plan.

Myanmar's leadership change appears not to have ruffled too many feathers in the country, with the streets of the capital Yangon remaining quiet on Thursday, and newspaper headlines just as interested in the new democratically elected leader of Indonesia. - CNA

• Myanmar military leader to visit India despite leadership shake-up  
  
• New Myanmar PM directly behind attack on Aung San Suu Kyi: US  
  
• Myanmar's hardliners extend control after shock PM sacking  
  
• Myanmar announces new PM after top-level shake-up  
  
• US calls on EU and others to slap full import ban on Myanmar  
  
• Myanmar PM sacked, arrested for corruption: Thai government  
  
• High-level tensions in Myanmar amid rumours of PM's arrest  
  
• UN's Annan convenes meeting to press Myanmar  

Posted: 23 October 2004 0639 hrs

Myanmar scraps military intelligence powers

YANGON : Myanmar's military rulers have scrapped a law that gave intelligence officers loyal to deposed premier Khin Nyunt widespread powers, state media reported on Friday.

Radio and television announced the abolition of the law that allowed military intelligence to penetrate all parts of society because it "did not serve the interests of the general public".

Myanmar's leadership has been riven with worsening political and business rivalry between a military intelligence faction and those from the mainstream military.

Khin Nyunt, the head of military intelligence for two decades, was ousted as premier on Tuesday and is under house arrest over corruption allegations. His place was taken by a military hardliner.

The repeal of the National Intelligence Bureau law on Friday - effectively abolishing the bureau itself with immediate effect - is the latest move to take powers away from the military intelligence wing.

The bureau was set up in 1983 to give military intelligence wide-ranging powers. Agencies, including the criminal investigation department and police special branch, are under its umbrella.

The military intelligence section was the dominant force but it was not immediately clear what would happen to the groups formerly under the bureau's auspices.

The National Intelligence Bureau includes among its former leaders Win Aung, the ex-Foreign Minister and ally of Khin Nyunt, who was also purged from the government's top ranks in a reshuffle last month.

"At this juncture we are establishing a modern developed nation where disciplined democracy will flourish," said the official announcement.

"Considering the changing circumstances, this old law is no longer serving the interests of the general public so it has been abolished." It said it was "in the interests of peace and security".

Khin Nyunt's ouster brought into sharp relief the ongoing feuding between the two sides.

The sacking was seen as a move by Than Shwe, the head of the government known as the State Peace and Development Council, to consolidate control over the leadership and promote military hardliners.

The military has ruled Myanmar, formerly known as Burma, since 1962 despite the opposition National League for Democracy winning a landslide election in 1990.

- AFP

 http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/afp_asiapacific/view/113007/1/.html

US tones down Burmese umbrage

CHIDANAND RAJGHATTA

TIMES NEWS NETWORK[ SATURDAY, OCTOBER 30, 2004 06:23:06 PM ]

WASHINGTON: The visit to India of Burmese dictator Than Shwe has angered a powerful US Senator. But the State Department took a more measured view of the visit, hoping New Delhi would use the opportunity to convey to him the international community's concerns about democracy and human rights.

"The Government of India is aware of our concerns about the situation in Burma," State Department spokesman Richard Boucher said when asked about the outburst of Republican Senator Mitch McConnell against the visit.

"We hope that the Government of India will convey to Than Shwe during his visit concerns shared by the international community."

Those concerns, Boucher said, include the failure of Burma's leaders to free political prisoners, including Aung San Suu Kyi, engage in a meaningful dialogue with other political and ethnic leaders to achieve national reconciliation and establish democracy, and ensure that the fundamental human rights of the people of Burma are respected.

New Delhi has long supported Aung San Suu Kyi and the democracy movement in Burma, but it surprisingly hosted the Burmese junta leader this week, ostensibly to get a grip on the militant movements in its north-eastern states adjoining Burma. The six-day visit is the first to India in 24 years by a Burmese leader.

The move outraged McConnell, who is the second ranking Republican in the US Senate and has been a supporter of the democracy movement in Burma.

"It is absolutely appalling that the world's largest democracy is embracing one of the world's most repressive and illegitimate military juntas. The community of democracies should expect more from one of its members," McConnell fumed in a statement on Wednesday.

"I hope it is not lost on India's leadership that their long-term interests are best served by a Burma rooted in democracy, freedom and justice," McConnell said.

"India has served as an exemplar for nonviolence and should do more for those Burmese who continue to courageously and nonviolently struggle for democracy."

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/articleshow/905081.cms