The Agonist - thoughtful, global, timely

Young Turks, Tonight

Mon, 01 Dec 2008 07:32:21 -0800

I'll be on the Young Turks tonight around 7pm Eastern talking about the situation here in Bangkok and probably more. Please tune in if you can.

Georgia, Ukraine, Germany, Russia and NATO

Mon, 01 Dec 2008 05:47:58 -0800

This is a really interesting article in the Times about Georgia, the Ukraine and NATO. Well reported and worth a read.

The real meat comes at the end of the article. It really is about the Germans and the Americans getting pissed off at each other about NATO membership for both countries. The Germans have dug in their heels and pretty much said, no way. But the Bush Administration, being petulant to the very end, is looking for a back door. Typical.

I don't have much to add, as everyone knows where I stand: having both countries in NATO is a bad idea. I'm glad the Germans are doing their best to prevent it from happening, but it does show that their is a growing rift between the US and Germany. And that I don't like to see. Alas, it's probably a part of an inevitable shift away from American hegemony. It'll still take a few decades to play out, but it's started.

Some Football Thoughts

Mon, 01 Dec 2008 05:10:17 -0800

Overtime In professional football, ties are, and should be, rare. Rules should promote playing to win the game. Thus "sudden death" overtime. Right now there are complaints with this system - where the first score wins - leads to "games decided by a coin toss." Namely, the one at the beginning of the overtime period. This is in no small part because of the rules changes that have favored offense - the easier it is to score, the harder it is to hold. The answer to the problem is simple: the last time to hold the lead in regulation wins the toss. There would only be a coin toss in the event of a 0-0 tie, at which point, there's good evidence that having the ball isn't a prohibitive advantage. This will mean that teams behind will think twice about just kicking it into overtime, and will weigh the odds on going for 2, or going for a touchdown rather than a field goal.

Obama's Foreign Policy

Mon, 01 Dec 2008 01:25:08 -0800

Sadly, I share George's pessimism about the future of Obama's foreign policy. He's surrounded himself with creatures of the establishment. No one on his team at this point hasn't been involved in the catastrophes of our foreign policy since the early nineties. Mogadishu, Kosovo, the failure of Bill Clinton to create a workable post-Cold War foreign policy architecture that was true to the interests and values of the United States, Iraq, our doomed quest to 'win' in Afghanistan and a coterie of officials who neither understand Iran or have the desire to. And let's not even mention Israel.

All that being said, I am not surprised. Obama ran as a centrist. His primary run was as a centrist, post-partisan, unity-porn loving, let's all come together politician. And so, I'm not surprised at this turn of events.

And so, he may 'get us out of Iraq' but that will only lessen the amount of money we piss away yearly on the military. He'll double down in Afghanistan, not being smart enough to realize that Afghanistan is easy to conquer, yet impossible to hold. Maybe he'll do some good domestically, but for my money, it's our foreign policy that has created the domestic mess we're in. And until Americans soberly address their role in the world we'll be unable to put our economic house in order. It just won't happen.

Hallucinated wealth-the real cost of rent

Sun, 30 Nov 2008 22:04:15 -0800

originally posted November 4^th, but elevated as it's worthy of a re-read ~eds

Allow me to borrow a phrase from Jim Kunstler: Hallucinated wealth.

For all of us to one degree or another in these United States seem afflicted with the malady (myself included).

I recently wrote an article complaining about the cost of corn. At the time corn was selling for 5 dollars and some 70 cents a bushel (left out the cuss words this time). Now I’m faced with the prospect of selling my corn at 4 dollars and zero cents per bushel—a ridiculous number when you consider farm land in these parts is presently valued at $5,000 an acre.

Iraq and Afghanistan: Dual Fronts

Sun, 30 Nov 2008 20:21:59 -0800

Team Agonist

Dec 1

End of Immunity Worries U.S. Contractors in Iraq

The thousands of American contractors in Iraq who have been above Iraqi law since the war began are suddenly facing a new era in which their United States passports will no longer protect them from arrest and imprisonment.

Taliban attack on NATO trucks depot in NW Pakistan kills two

Taliban militants Monday destroyed a dozen trucks in the Pakistani city of Peshawar containing supplies for NATO troops in Afghanistan, killing two people in the process, police said.

The attack took place early in the morning at a terminal in the northwestern city where trucks carrying supplies for the NATO forces are parked at night.

"Two people were killed and 12 trucks loaded with goods for NATO forces were burnt to ashes after Taliban fired three rockets at the terminal," area police official Zahoor Khan told AFP.

** Policing Afghanistan, An ethnic-minority force enters a Taliban stronghold. ~ New Yorker

more stories after the jump

Please post new stories and comments about the coalition's wars in Iraq and Afghanistan on this thread. Prior updates here

Sub-Saharan Africa News Roundup, November 30

Sun, 30 Nov 2008 19:28:58 -0800

Let's take a quick look at regional problems in Africa this week, including piracy, war, and disease.

First, piracy:

Somali pirates and the owners of a Ukrainian ship, one of the pirates' biggest seizures this season, have reportedly worked out a deal to exchange the ship for a ransom. Negotiations over a captured Saudi Arabian oil tanker continue. Pirates hijacked a chemical tanker on Friday.

Meanwhile, European countries like Germany are wrestling with bureaucratic and legal complications that inhibit their ability to act swiftly against pirates. Issues of jurisdiction, approval for military deployments, and concerns over the nuances of extradition and asylum-seeking have delayed European decision-makers' responses to the increasing threat of piracy. Nonetheless, such problems may soon be solved, and the EU's first naval mission. which will target pirates, is poised to begin operating as soon as early December.

Bangkok Airport

Sun, 30 Nov 2008 19:28:01 -0800

No way into the airport at all. Not a chance in a million years. There was news they were supposed to open around 1PM today but when I was there everyone I talked to said the situation had not changed and there were no plans to open the airport until this evening, if not tomorrow, or longer. There was zero evidence that the protesters were leaving. And I haven't heard news to that effect as well. Negotiations continue, but the PAD want's the PM's resignation as a baseline for leaving the airport. And he's dug in his heels. I did get a suggestion to try a back door route to the other airport in town that is closed and I might try it a bit later. But I'll probably just head to the PM's office to snap some photos of the protesters there. Thankfully there was no gunfire last night.

I will be on the Young Turks Monday night at 7pm Eastern to discuss the situation here so please tune in. More as it develops.

Solid reporting here from an LA Times correspondent in Bangkok. A good run down of where we are, what we await.

More On Bangkok Protests, Airport Closure Continues

Sun, 30 Nov 2008 02:43:25 -0800

I'm heading over to the pro-government rally in a few minutes--or I'm trying to, not having much luck but I'm not giving up. But I wanted to highlight this story by the BBC. Probably the best up to date overview so far. I'll report back after the rally. Hopefully have some photos too.

Update: Very frustrating night. I went to the designated place for the protest, Sanamluwang Park, only to learn that the venue had changed at the last minute. This was probably a wise decision as the 'Yellow-Shirts' who have surrounded the Prime Minister's office were not far away from Sanamluwang and were probably angry for the events that occurred last night, which were largely interpreted as a revenge of sorts for the airport situation. And it was also probably wise as the park and area surrounding was filled with families just enjoying themselves on a cool Sunday Bangkok evening. It was a carnival like atmosphere and could have ended up badly.

However, the venue was moved at the last moment to the Victory Monument, which is a long, long ways away from where I was. And Bangkok traffic is intense, even on a Sunday evening. But I got a taxi and headed out that way, only to be stuck in a nasty traffic snarl for two and a half hours. By which time the protesters at the Victory Monument had largely dispersed. So, tomorrow I am off to the airport first thing in the morning.

One note, this article by AFP is wrong. The protests were no where near the 'Yellow Shirts.' As I said above, the original venue was very close, but the last minute change (which was a wise choice in my estimation, as it lowered the potential for clashes) moved the 'Red Shirts' quite a long way away from any 'Yellow Shirt' protesters. More tomorrow.

Update 2: Interesting, if nasty article in the New York Times. This is far from an impartial news story. It's very slanted towards the pro-government party. For example this line: "But the meeting between Mr. Chamlong and the police also underlined the demonstrators’ apparent impunity in carrying out their illegal sit-ins that have caused chaos among travelers across the region. I don't know if they are technically legal or not. But you know, civil disobedience has to be forceful, but peaceful, to be effective. (And I have no dog in this fight.) So, who is the writer to judge the situation in this way?

It also smacks of Western elitism. I love how the West is telling the Thai's what is an appropriate means of protest and what isn't:

The United States State Department called the airport seizures “not an appropriate means of protest” and urged protesters to “to walk away from the airports peacefully.”

European Union ambassadors in Bangkok issued a statement that called the seizures of the airports “totally inappropriate.”

“We urge the protesters to evacuate the airports peacefully without delay in order to avoid a major consular crisis and its economic consequences for Thailand,” the European ambassadors said.

Of course, the West is saying these things because the have to pay the freight for all the stranded tourists. Never mind that it is the Thai's government and country at stake here. I find that irritating, to say the least. Let the Thai's sort it out. When we stick our noses into business that isn't really ours we just make it worse.

The "Conversation"

Sun, 30 Nov 2008 00:05:02 -0800

I've been meaning to write this post for a long, long time. Finally, after traveling through Cambodia it coalesced into something meaningful. It's about a 'Conversation' that the developed nations of the world and the undeveloped nations of the world are having. And it is a conversation that is going to get more intense in the next two decades. It's a simple conversation, but one I do not think the developed world understands. I also don't think the undeveloped world understands it either. Or, rather, neither side understands the stakes, both are in denial about it and it isn't going away.

More after the jump.

Rubin Has No Credibility Any More

Sat, 29 Nov 2008 23:50:04 -0800

I used to have a lot of respect for Robert Rubin. But not any more. This is garbage of the worst kind. Barry and Mish have the appropriate outraged responses. But Barry has the best line:

Thus, today Mr. Rubin officially gets moved out of the column of intellectual heavyweights, and into the big “just as full shit as the rest of them” pile.

Although this line by Mish is pretty good too:

Rubin's statement displays ignorance at best and is a blatant lie at worst. There are plenty of people that saw this coming: Roubini, Shiller, Shostak, Schiff, me, and literally hundreds of bloggers all of which could have run Citigroup better than Citigroup management did.

What a joke.

New Agonist Forum: Strategies for Coping With Recession -- Getting Through the Tough Times

Sat, 29 Nov 2008 20:00:15 -0800

As suggested in this thread, the new forum on "getting through the tough times" is now here: Strategies for Coping With Recession, and we can tweak it depending on how it develops and what new forum tools there may be after the site upgrade.

Here is the list of Agonist Forums (you can also get to this list using the "latest: forums" link on your left sidebar menu.

BlogAds On Tour

Sat, 29 Nov 2008 19:48:29 -0800

Don't usually hype photos of myself, but damn, this one came out pretty well. And yes, I don't mind whoring myself out for BlogAds. Great company that continues, even in this dire economic environment, to help pay the bills around here. So, click on some ads, will ya?

Note To D Ross: STFU

Sat, 29 Nov 2008 19:21:16 -0800

Dennis Ross is a moron. Go read Total Wonkerr for the details.

2008 Blog Reader Survey

Sat, 29 Nov 2008 19:12:36 -0800

It's that time of year again. I cannot stress how important this survey is, especially in light of the fall in ads due to the end of the election season and the financial crisis. So, if you would prefer to not have me beg you for money when I am stuck in some Godforsaken jungle then please take the damn survey. (And click on the ads in the sidebar while you are at it.)

If you have taken the survey at another blog, do it again here. It's critical that everyone participate. We really need to have better than the 1% participation rate we had last year.

Please take our Blog Reader Project survey.

It'll only take a few minutes and I promise it won't hurt! If you are hesitant about privacy concerns, please don't be. It's 100% anonymous, unless you wish to disclose something.

So, ask yourself this question if you don't want to take the survey: do you want me to fulfill this year-long quest I've set out on or not? If you do, then please take our survey.