There have been a lot of rumors concerning bin Laden's imminent capture lately so I thought I would bring to your attention comments from a recent Stratfor report.

Stratfor says,"the source of the news is clearly inside the Bush administration, which obviously wants the world to know what is coming."

And Stratfor also confirms our earlier suspicion that Musharaff and the US cut a deal about nukes and bin Laden: "[A]dministration sources have said that Washington and Islamabad have cut a deal under which the United States will be permitted to send thousands of troops into Pakistan and will be provided with Pakistani intelligence assistance as to the location of bin Laden. In exchange, the United States will not make an issue of the pardon given Pakistan's chief nuclear scientist, who was charged with disseminating nuclear technology."

Of course there is more to it than that. But I think I will let Stratfor tell the tale:

"In short, Washington told Musharraf that, unless he was prepared to break Islamist control over his security services (ISI), the United States would have to take extreme measures against Pakistan. To emphasize the point -- and U.S. options -- U.S. and Indian troops conducted military exercises together. The point was not lost on Musharraf: He was facing a regime-threatening crisis unless he was prepared to do something fundamental about the ISI."

And here are the final points Stratfor makes about the deal of the century:

"Either Musharraf has the power to force the ISI to do his bidding or he doesn't. If he does, bin Laden will soon be in U.S. hands, the Pakistani Islamist machine will be in a state of collapse, and -- coupled with results in Iran and Saudi Arabia of the Iraq war, the war with al Qaeda can be wrapped up.

"It is very hard to imagine the ISI going quietly into that good night. It is also difficult to imagine Musharraf being able to control Pakistan, given the package of promises he has delivered. It seems to us that chaos is the most likely outcome. However, that is not certain. Musharraf does not have a great deal of room for maneuver, but he is a master of using what little room he has. We are entering the key period of the war."

We would tend to agree.

UPDATE: The Argus is all over this story. And what a great new look to the site. If you are interested in a blog focused on Central Asia and the Kavkaz--well, this is the one. I really miss Uzbekistan. I can't say why, but I just do.