Here is the April 21 World SARS map, from the WHO (World Health Organisation).

SARS’ Mythical Mortality Rate

For the past 6 days, our SARS Updates have demonstrated that official estimates of SARS mortality are in error. The “official” 3-5% mortality rate is unbelievably low.

On April 21, Dr. Joseph Sun, a pathologist at the University of Hong Kong, said that there was a 5% mortality rate in Hong Kong. This fits with the party line, of Hong Kong’s Minister of Health, Welfare and Food.

On the mortality issue, China has been more honest. On April 21, Chinese Executive Vice Minister of Health, Gao Qiang, said, "Guangdong has developed some effective methods which can cure 80 percent of the patients." [20% cannot be cured – docbear]

Calculations show that the real case-fatality rate of SARS is between 8 and 20% -- See the recent SARS Updates for details.

Comparative risks, with SARS and other infectious diseases:

If you catch Ebola virus, there is a 50-90% chance that you will die, soon.

If you catch smallpox virus (and have not been vaccinated), there is a 30% or greater chance that you will die, soon.

If you caught the Spanish 'Flu in the 1918 influenza epidemic, there was a 2 - 2.5% mortality rate.

If you catch diphtheria (and have not been vaccinated), there is a 5 - 10% chance that you will die, soon.

If you catch whooping cough (pertussis) in the US, there is a 0.2% chance that you will die, and it takes weeks.

In an epidemic in Peru, measles had a 45% attack rate and a 3.3% case-fatality rate.

For an "ordinary" pneumonia, the chance of dying is 1%, up to 2 - 30% if it is severe enough to need hospitalisation.

For a full morning briefing on SARS, see the 4/22 SARS Update.