http://www.insidevc.com/vcs/showdown_with_iraq/article/0,1375,VCS_9220_1851225,00.html

The political equation is shifting

Please pray for all victims.
Thanks!

Has any progress been made in determining the veracity or lack thereof of the "aeronautics.ru" site and its supposed "GRU intelligence reports?"

The guy's got an active imagination, that;s for sure, or he's reading the Agonist and flipping every encounter the wrong way. Any ideas, did I sleep through the big furor about this?

????
eST I just want y'all to know that I am very hesitant to say anything about Halliburton. The only thing I want to say is this: Brown and Root is a wholly owned subsidiary of Halliburton. Surmise as you wish, but I read their year end statement, among other things that are publicly available, which says that B&R is just that.

Has any progress been made in determining the veracity or lack thereof of the "aeronautics.ru" site and its supposed "GRU intelligence reports?"

The guy's got an active imagination, that;s for sure, or he's reading the Agonist and flipping every encounter the wrong way. Any ideas, did I sleep through the big furor about this?

Search after "Venik" in the Google Groups and judge yourself, how credible something is, were this guy is involved.

I am from Iran.We used to be Saddam's enemies.We suffered his bombs and his missles.We sufferd his gas weapons.Every day a vetern dies from chemical wounds caused by his weapons.
But every one here is disapointed now.We find ourselves betrayed by this aggresion against Iraqi people.
How do we believe this propaganda about liberating Iraq when they plan to make an american general to govern post war Iraq?
Either these guys dont know about anti-foriegner ,anti-colonist seniments in this part of world or they try to provoke this sentiments for some grand plans.
I can tell you guys and gals that the pro-american sentiments here are fading fast.Even my 15 yrs old sister now switched from CNN and BBC to TV5 (france) and aljaz.
We were close to toppling our dictators when all this take place and I think that we must wait for 0-15 other years before trying again because nodbody buys our words for an american style democracy.
We are betrayed by Rummy and his friends.

http://news.com.au/common/story_page/0,4057,6211841%255E1702,00.html

Iran doesn't want the US involved in post-war Iraq; they didn't expect the resistance either?

Please pray for all victims.

is there somewhere online a complete list of soldier quotes so far?
ie quotes directly attributed to us/uk troops in the theatre.
i think such a resource would be very useful.

And meanwhile in Afghanistan... U.S. Considers wider offensive... http://www.afghannews.net/news.php?topicid=1375 "we need a bigger boat" JAWS.

http://www.msnbc.com/news/813860.asp?0ql=cbp&cp1=1

awesome - op-ed pieces from around the world
- if you just have time for one site - read this one!

Please pray for all victims!

Sean~~I thought they said thar was the VP that Saddams bodyguard was with on the telecast i saw!

Kamran -

THe idea of having a TEMPORARY military governor is much in line with what the Allies did in Germany and Japan after World War II. The attempt to engender a free and democratic government appears to have been successful in those cases; both are now, of course, two of the most industrialized and economically proseperous nations in the world.

Comparing Japan and Germany to the Middle East is wishful thinking. There have been many articles that explain this. Even Charles Krauthammer says the solution will come from the Middle East (see
http://www.msnbc.com/news/813860.asp?0ql=cbp&cp1=1
scroll down).

Please pray for all victims.

There are few genuine comparisons between post-war Germany and Japan and what may happen in Iraq. A consortium of Japanese historians issued an open letter protesting any such comparisons that might be made by the US government. These were nations that were rigidly homogenous, utterly defeated, and universally regarded, even internally, as morally culpable. The analogy is so corrupt that I'm not going to go further.

I came here to suggest that one linke to www.washingtonpost.com for a number of stories on how the war is affecting chang in the Arab World. Short version: Well, the good news is that it's united!

Morning All,

Some of the more recent poll data; this is an extended quote from the MSNBC/Newsweek article:

"The majority of those polled (63 percent) agree that the United States was right in taking military action in Iraq when it did, though 32 percent feel that more time should have been devoted to negotiating a diplomatic solution. The NEWSWEEK poll was conducted on March 27 and 28 and 1,004 adults aged 18 and older were interviewed. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points."

"Despite concerns voiced this week by some analysts that the war might take longer than was initially expected, nearly three-quarters (74 percent) of those polled say they believe that the Bush Administration has a ?well-thought-out plan? for using military force against Iraq?up sharply from 49 percent in late September. And nearly half of Americans polled (49 percent) say they would support continuing U.S. military action in Iraq for more than a year, if that were how long it took to disarm Iraq and remove Saddam. Thirteen percent say they would support continued military action for several months, nine percent for up to a year, eight percent would support action for the next several weeks and an equal number says they would only support continuing U.S. military action for another week or less (13 percent don?t know)."

George:

That's why I hope UN will take over the peace-building operation afterwards. More recent experiences like Kosovo, East Timor, Cambodja and maybe in a way Afghanistan have proven promising, although very long-term and difficult.

Just by chance I happened to come across this intelligent (if lengthy) analysis of American society on the Dar al Hayat website:

http://english.daralhayat.com/comment/27-03-2003/Article-20030327-30374eb2-c0a8-01fc-0042-a1ed3f83d19d/story.html

It is interesting to see a Middle Eastern writer discovering what many of us Americans knew all along...

George, Carruthers -

Whoa, whoa, whoa. I did not say that I agreed with this justification, I am just stating what could be the rationale of empowering a temp. military governor at the conclusion of the war.

Understood BWH. Sorry.

Bucketloads of good stuff from Josh Marshall. SP should link this in his flash. Not only this link, but the one below it, which is another "knives are coming out for Rummy" one.

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/march0304.html#0330031236pm

The reports of a major assault on Republican Guard positions ringing Baghdad are troubling but will almost certainly not lead to the decisive battle that the media seems to be cooking up. Like they say, the enemy has a vote, and it is pretty clear that the "outskirts" of Baghdad is not where the real battle is going to be fought. They will make it as difficult as possible initially, but then we will essentially be "let into" Baghdad because this is where they have wanted us all along. The Vietnamese had the jungles. The Iraqis have the cities. They invented cities over 5000 years ago. This is where they will fight us. The coming battle against the Republican Guard units on the outskirts of Bagdhad from the Iraqi perspective will be designed to suck us into the city on their terms. Hopefully our people will be too smart for that. This will let us know who is calling the shots in the US military now. If we rush into Baghdad it will be because the politicians are calling the shots. If we are patient it will imply that the military is back in control.

Carruthers___

Thanks for the link. This is strong stuff and definitely worth reading.

Ellen, the Dar al Hayat article is by Edward Said, and it's a bit of a stretch to call him a Middle Eastern writer, while he was born in Palestine (pre-1948) and was a child in Egypt, he was educated at Princeton and Harvard, and lives in New York, where he is University Professor of English and Comparative Literature at Columbia University. Of course, that makes him somewhat more qualified to write about American Society.

They don't seem to be rushing in. They've announced a pause. There's another sandstorm brewing for next week. I think they'll wait for the 4th, and in the meantime continue to decimate the RG. And the Brits seem to be making progress in Basra.

THere seems no good reason for haste. After all, tho'our supply line may be stretched, at least we have one. The longer we make them wait, the weaker they'll be.

Hope you all have noticed what's happened in the northeast while most attention has been focused on the south.

Granmere___

My impression is that, the British are not doing anythig significant in South.

They´ve been caught to misrepresent facts quite often and of course overstating their successes alot.

Today they released information that they captured or killed an Iraqui general from the RG along with other high-ranking officials.

Excuse me but, what´s an RG General doing OUTSIDE Basra? Didn´t the Brits say that all they were facing was parts of 51st Div. and Baath paramilitaries?

Many suspect leaks... and repeatedly.

There are few genuine comparisons between post-war Germany and Japan and what may happen in Iraq. A consortium of Japanese historians issued an open letter protesting any such comparisons that might be made by the US government. These were nations that were rigidly homogenous, utterly defeated, and universally regarded, even internally, as morally culpable. The analogy is so corrupt that I'm not going to go further.

Posted by Carruthers at March 30, 2003 08:51 AM

That's why I hope UN will take over the peace-building operation afterwards. More recent experiences like Kosovo, East Timor, Cambodja and maybe in a way Afghanistan have proven promising, although very long-term and difficult.

Posted by TheBelgian at March 30, 2003 08:53 AM

I have to respond to these two comments. Firts, comparing Germany to Iraq is as valid as any other cross cultural comparison. Germany is not nearly as 'homoginous' as outsiders think. It has many old 'tribal' or 'ethnic' sub-divisions and a huge catholic/protestant religious division (one of the primary causes of the 30 Years War). I'm not saying the situations are identicle, just that I can point out as many similarities as differences.

Second, building democracy in Germany was successful for two main reasons. First, the Allies completely destroyed the German state in 1945. This was followed by a de-Nazification campaign that allowed the government that followed to be viewed as 'clean' of potential Nazi influance. Second, the Berlin crisis changed the German populations view of the western occupation forces into protectors (there is actually polling data that shows this). This meant that the allies could allow German democratization to proceed without the German ellections turning into a reforendum on Western occupation.

Finally, the UN has a terrible record of post conflict governance. The examples you cite will suffice. Kosovo, the only area that the UN really controls is the capital, the rest of the province is now essentially run by local criminal gangs that are just as brutal as the Serbs used to be. East Timor was successful because the UN was mearly a transitional authority, with the majority of governance being done by locals themselves. Cambodia was a total disaster, with the democratic system colapsing within months of the UN withdrawl, and a former Kemer Rouge leader crushing his oposition with tanks and driving them across the border.

The irony of history is that democratization by outsiders only works when the democratizers have no real intention of democratizing from the outset. The goal in Germany and Japan in 1945 was not to bring democracy, but to destroy the existing states (if you doubt this, read the original documents published by the allies at the time. The line that stick in my mind is one that says the goal of the allies is the "defeat, occupation, and dismemberment of the German state.")

European It was a Colonel, not a General. According to the UK military spokesman Group Captain Al Lockwood (as reported in the BBC) "A Republican Guard colonel has been killed and we have several other high-ranking prisoners." No word on whether they are RG, Ba'ath party, or Fedayeen.

EddieC___

Your version is propably correct. No surprise since it was BBC that you heard it from.

Mine was from SKY news .

I´ll take BBC over those guys anytime.

STart Quote:
George:

That's why I hope UN will take over the peace-building operation afterwards. More recent experiences like Kosovo, East Timor, Cambodja and maybe in a way Afghanistan have proven promising, although very long-term and difficult.
Posted by TheBelgian at March 30, 2003 08:53 AM
End Quote:

Having the UN take over running the country is certainly a valid idea. I wonder if the disparate elements of the UN can come together enough to agree on how to run things ? For example, I would think China would want a more socialist bent for a new govt rather than a total free market capitalist govt.

Mad Dog

Start Quote:
They don't seem to be rushing in. They've announced a pause. There's another sandstorm brewing for next week. I think they'll wait for the 4th, and in the meantime continue to decimate the RG. And the Brits seem to be making progress in Basra.

THere seems no good reason for haste. After all, tho'our supply line may be stretched, at least we have one. The longer we make them wait, the weaker they'll be.

Hope you all have noticed what's happened in the northeast while most attention has been focused on the south.
Posted by Granmere at March 30, 2003 09:33 AM
End Quote:

I agree completely. There is no need to rush. Clean out the Saddam fanboys in the south and beseige Bagdad. Let Saddam and the RG stew in there. Let food and water in, and civilians out, but in the mean time we can pick apart the RG with air assets. This isnt a race.

Mad Dog

re. 'democratization' (great word BTW) comparisons with germany - germany was a democracy before the war - hitler was elected. once elected the nazis deliberately manipulated the population in calculated ways.

"Of course the people don't want war. But after all, it's the leaders of the country who determine the policy, and it's always a simple matter to drag the people along whether it's a democracy, a fascist dictatorship, or a parliament, or a communist dictatorship. Voice or no voice, the people can always be brought to the bidding of the leaders. That is easy. All you have to do is tell them they are being attacked, and denounce the pacifists for lack of patriotism, and exposing the country to greater danger." (hermann goering)

kamran raises an important point -- the current action is political death to yankophiles in adjacent nations (and everywhere else, for that matter).

BHW
Here is middle east with centuries of colonialism and a handful of anti colonism heros and lrgends.you cannt compare it with germany or japan that did not have any history of colnonism.
on the other hand the mere act of imposing a forien goveror on post war japan and germany is a humilating act from winners upon losers.and the real problem is laid in this huliating behavior.

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