Just a question. Do you guys beleive that Saddam is already dead? Im not sure either way. What do you think Sean-Paul?

It is indeed tragic that the doctor who first raised the alarm has died from the disease.

Thus far about 50 people have died from SARS, and there are an estimated 1500 afflicted.

Originally, researchers thought the disease was caused by a variation of the measles virus. More recent information connects SARS to a new form of coronavirus, which causes the common cold.

1500 hundred people worldwide is hardly an epidemic. Bears watching, but panic is hardly warranted at this point.

I am hearing from all kinds of friends that went to the Hong Kong 7s Rugby (i usually go every year but didn't this year due to SARS) that this was really kept quiet in Hong Kong because of all the tourist dollars it brings in. Lots of Ex-pats in Asia are coming into contact with this and flying around the world....a chance that SARS could become big.

Perhaps someone should do a SARS Agonist or something... although I'm sure someone has a SARS blog now somewhere.

"Thus far about 50 people have died from SARS, and there are an estimated 1500 afflicted."

If that's accurate, and unfortunately with China's resistance to come clean on what's happening in their country, then this is about a 3.33% fatality rate?

Maybe not time to panic, but definitely enough for me to cancel a flight to Singapore and Hong Kong next month. I have no desire to sit on a plane for the better part of 24 hours sharing air with a couple hundred people and the threat of SARS. =/

Forgive my ignorance. What is SARS?

Here is one link for tomahawk inventory before the war:

http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/systems/munitions/smart.htm

Is Saddam dead? Doubt it. Joe Galloway, independent war correspondent in an interview on NPR... stated that Saddam was sleeping in a house right next to the bunker hit during the decapitation strike. Galloway insists the house wasn't hit - and Saddam is alive and well.

And if he is alive - why did the US government just release info. that his air defense minister was fired today by... Saddam?

I will say that news sources are definitively reporting that Rumsfeld, Pearle, and Wolfowitz are now dead. Politically D-E-A-D!!!

Any chance that George and the rest of his corrupt administration will submit their resignations?

The fatality rate has varied around 3-4% of diagnosed cases of SARS, by the World Health Organisation statistics. http://www.who.int/

About 10-15% of the diagnosed patients have needed mechanical ventilation.

If the SARS virus is like other coronaviruses, it will spread reasonably easily, unless special precautions are taken. Remember, coronavirus is a "common cold" virus.

There is no cure (yet) for the "common cold".

Being from Canada, (albeit on the far East Coast), SARS is a major concern of mine. Now the reports say that it is air-borne. Uh-huh. I just hope it does not get out into the general population in a large city...

Something like this could resonably shut down part of the world.

russian military intelligence estimates that us has used up 25% of its cruise missiles.

http://www1.iraqwar.ru/iraq-read_article.php?articleId=954&sesid=2

Sean-Paul:
Thanks for the update on SARS. Before you rush out to purchase a masks/respirators A little clarification is in order. N95 is a rating not a particular type of mask. N95 is a rating promulgated by the National Institute of Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH). The standard recognizes three levels of filter efficiency [95%, 99% & 99.97% -- Commonly referred to as 100] and three levels of resistance to oil [N (not resistant to oil) , R (resistant to oil - for a limited time), and P ( oil-proof. )]. An N95 mask or respirator is the least effective of the nine possible ratings. If the CDC has determined that an N95 mask/respirator is sufficient then any of the higher rated masks/respirators should be effective. The most common alternative to N95 is the N100 class of protection - which is used in asbestos abatement - these are typically pink. The rating will be printed prominently on the filter media.

Some warnings:
1) Avoid the "nuisance" masks typically sold at home centers and hardware stores. These are the thin oval shaped masks with a metal nose band at the top and one headband. N95 versions of this type of mask are available - N95 will be printed prominently. My local Home Depot does sell an N95 mask similar to the folded mask discussed above.
2) $30 half face respirators available at the local hardware store do not necessarily have an N95 rating. Unless it is explicit do not count on it.
This is only based on some cursory research I did recently when OSHA declares wood dust carcinogenic and I decided to upgrade my dust protection in the woodshop...it is not based on any expertise in occupational safety and health or disease control.

that's creepy as hell. Thanks for the info.

Saddam is alive. Before the war, he wanted to be Stalin, now he wants to be Ho Chi Minh. Will Bush be his Johnson? And if so, who's Nixon?

SARS is airborne and easily contagious. I suspect authorities are down playing the truth in order to avoid a panic. It should be a major concern of the world, thanks to jet travel. Just consider what it will do to the US if it gets into the part of the population with no medical insurance.

i doubt that saddam hussein is alive. i read an article about that in a french newspaper, forget if it was le monde, le figaro or liberation.

anyway, they stated that, and this is a fact, that french doctors came to iraq a year or so ago to treat saddam hussein for cancer. he was frail and could barely light his cigar with his trembling hands.

it's very possible that there are 3 - 4 saddam husseins walking around, all for the benefit of the regime but that the real saddam hussein, has died long ago. talk about a "survivor" - he's survived his own death!

Peter:

Nixon= Hastert?
Hagel?
Lieberman?

Ok, bringing the various threads of this comment section together, and no doubt bringing accusations of tin-hat conspiracy theories:

What happens if SARS hits our troops?

Randal,
in my best McLaughlin voice..."wrong! McCain is Nixon."

Or maybe Dean. Dean is the early favorite out here on the west coast.

 
on SARS docbear quoted WHO stats:

The fatality rate has varied around 3-4% of diagnosed cases of SARS,
by the World Health Organisation statistics. http://www.who.int/
About 10-15% of the diagnosed patients have needed mechanical
ventilation.

If we wanted to do some worst case, back of the envelope calculations we'd
also need to know the potential infection rate. Could it be as bad the annual
flu, which infects 2-10% of us? Sounds like potentially 10-40 million cases. As
I recall we have 1.5 million hospital beds in the U.S....
Hope it is nowhere near 1% of these numbers. Let's hope we've done some
significant public health planning since the beginning of the war on terror.

it's never useful to panic, IMO. but SARS is being taken very seriously by canadian health officials, and they're not really inclined to overreact. the canadian team is not travelling to the women's world ice hockey championship in beijing. two NHL players have been under observation and didn't travel to their team's game on saturday.

i think this is getting far less attention than it normally would in the US due to the war.

To quote The Stand: (Which, believe me, gives me shivers everytime I think about it.)

"There is no truth-no truth-to the rumor that this strain of flu is fatal. In the majority of cases, the person afflicted can expect to be up and around and feeling fine within a week. Further---{a spasm of coughing}..." from "The President's speech, delivered at 9 p.m. EST, not seen in many areas"

I'm in Vancouver, so have been tracking SARS on the net for about three weeks now. Much Googling. No dedicated SARS blog I know of yet.

Compared to coverage here, coverage in US media seems bizarrely muted.

The situation in Toronto looks extremely serious, with Ireland and NZ both advising their citizens not to go there. The closure of the second hospital is seen as very bad news, but not as bad as "community" cases would be. Those are also called "third generation" cases.

Note the lethality is actually *less* than is seen with a given strain of flu, so far. But the people who die seem more likely to be "old", i.e. over forty.

Evident from HK media (as well as recent CDC briefing) that they don't know much yet about mechanism of spread. Droplet is assumed, but likely it can stay alive outside the body, on surfaces, for at least three hours.

(If you want an overlapping nightmare scenario, imagine it spreading to the troops in Iraq.)

in my best McLaughlin voice..."wrong! McCain is Nixon

ABSOLUTELY !!!!!!!
I wholeheartedly agree. I figured that after the midterm elections Johnny Mc was tossed on the scrap heap of politics. However, I bet he'll round up the Pentagon guys and elbow his way back. He lives to fight another day.

To those of you who are still reading this section, is anyone noticing that news reports state Bu$h is using the word "demanding" in his messages to the top brass. Reminds me of Hitler ranting in the bunker.
Makes me wonder if he is falling off that sobriety wagon.
Perhaps the "untold story" behind the pretzel-choke episode is truer than most would admit.

In 1994, I wrote an article regarding a common virus mutation taking advantage of poor immune systems.

Since then, I've coined this type of Earth Gaia intervention "The Slap of Evolution".

The Slap events are diverse and not just a deadly virus. They are also atmosphere related (sandstorm), (shuttle). There are others. Watch for one on Monday, 03.31.2003. This is the date my beta version Slap software picked - on March 1. I could be totally wrong,

"(If you want an overlapping nightmare scenario, imagine it spreading to the troops in Iraq.)"

Imagine it spreading to a population of 25 million underfed, war-stressed Iraqi civillians.

Does anyone know or have links to information on the efficacy of air purifiers &/or air filters vs. SARS? I thought about purchasing a "wearble air purifier" for air travel but it was sold out at several online stores.

"anyway, they stated that, and this is a fact, that french doctors came to iraq a year or so ago to treat saddam hussein for cancer. he was frail and could barely light his cigar with his trembling hands."

Pravda said it was 4 years ago and wanted to know if it was Saddam's final joke that the US would do all it is doing to oust him when he was already dead. But we're talking Pravda... It would a cruel irony though, but we would never (and may never) know the truth.

"The Iraqi tribes, ignored by the military planners and Washington pundits who think Iraq is held together only by the Baath party and the army, are a powerful force, their unity cemented by marriage and a network of families loyal to President Saddam who provide a force as cohesive as the Baath party itself.

And yesterday, tribal leaders came from all over Iraq, from Ninevah and Babylon and Basra and Nasiriyah and all the cities of Mesopotamia.

President Saddam has already issued one set of orders which tells the tribesmen "to fight [the Americans and British] in groups and attack their advance and rear lines to block the way of their progress ... If the enemy settles into a position, start to harass them at night ..."

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/storydisplay.cfm?storyID=3301248&reportid=562588&thesection=news&thesubsection=dialogue

Anybody see Lawrence of Arabia?

Thank you for your humanity m.a.battilana! I was beginning to think this forum had been absorbed into the wargasm of militech and shockinaw.

The comparison with the WWI Flu epidemic is worth making. For all the noise of WWI, the 1918 flu epidemic killed more people than the war. However, the stress and malnutrion of war conditions must bear a significant portion of the blame for the devastation of the 'Flu epidemic.

I live in Toronto, the epicentre of this whole thing.

To be perfectly honest, people here feel it's a little overblown. We're a little concerned, but we're hardly panicked.

My boss is Chinese, so I have fairly close contact with people from Hong Kong. And we're just not worried. If it were as widespread as is being suggested, we feel, we'd all be sick by now.

Anyone know if there have been "survivors yet" I mean anyone who has gotten over this (provided they really had SARS)

Creepy part is will those few become the antibody machines for mankind...kinda like the Omega Man

toronto is hardly the "epicentre"; that would be hong kong.

bobbo -- yes, there are survivors, in fact most people survive it; the mortality rate seems to be around 3% right now, which isn't terrible.

i get a lot of my information from the WHO (world health organization) itself.

Are you sure that there are "survivors"? From the WHO faq

"Q: Are there any positive developments?

A : A significant number of cases in Viet Nam, as a result of good supportive care, have improved."

Big difference between improved and recovered. Didn't dig real deep on the site yet so maybe there is more positive information elsewhere.

But are the 1500 patients doomed to quartantine wards until somebody finally finds the cure for the common cold?

Follow this very terrifying Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) on the special SARS website and the desease outbreak page of the WHO (World Health organization).

SARS sounds nasty, which is probably why the Ontario gov't has ordered quarantine. As for hospitals being closed, any Canadian could tell you that the health system in Ontario is being deliberately dismantled by the provincial government in preparation for privitization, which makes hospital closures hardly surprising.

I live in Hong Kong and I feel I ought to clarify a few points about SARS.

Firstly it is not being played down by the HK authorities. It is being taken very seriously with lots of public information and plently of precautionary cleaning and closures.

It is being played down by the mainland authorities which is expected. They think the west will think badly of them if it is found to come from China. Little do they know we think badly of them because they aren't brave enough to be open about it...(!)

The epicenter of it is not Toronto, it's Guandong, China. Hong Kong seems to have the most cases because of the Chinese mainland govt. hiding figures.

Plenty of people have recovered from it, already.

It is perfectly safe on aircraft as long as noone coughs on you! I spend "lots" of time in aircraft and im fine...really.

Older, more frail people are the ones who are dying. They almost always have some other disease.

As for the war....."Survivor: Iraq"......now do they know why the world objected to it?

We don't have a very large database yet, but it's interesting to note that the death rate from SARS seems to be close to zero in the countries with the most advanced hospital care. From the next tier downward we see the death rate jump to 3%+. I wonder, if the case load gets to be so great that it "overloads" the hospitals, how will that impact the death rate?

Other questions: What are the implications of SARS in war zones and severely impoverished countries? What affect will SARS have on the HIV-positive?

Next, assuming this is a variant of one of the "common cold" viruses: if we remain susceptible to colds year after year because the viruses keep mutating, will this virus continue to mutate, retaining its deadly nature while "fooling" our body's immune systems again and again? If that turns out to be the case, then the implication would seem to be that we would have a 3%+ chance of dying (statistically speaking) every time we catch the SARS "cold." At that rate, the human race could be close to extinction within two decades . . . actually, I don't think it's *that* bad -- every new disease can kill off victims until only those individuals who have a natural resistance to the disease remain, and then they build up the population again so that the disease is from that time forward relatively benign . . . until the next new disease shows up. For all we know, the common cold may at one time have been a serious "killer" disease.

Finally, how long before the conspiracy theories show up saying that this is a man-made disease? And if it was a man-made disease, is there any way that could be proven?

Anyone remember Richard Preston's novel "The Cobra Event?"

SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome) has been tentatively identified as a paramyxovirus. The family of Paramyxoviridae includes measles, mumps, and flu.

The WHO has a FAQ page which is worth reading.

One thing I'm curious about: I know that myxoviruses have been transmitted between humans and animals. Is there any evidence that this outbreak started that way?

AFAIK the spanish flu came in 4 "waves", about a year or so appart. Thus, it's reasonable to expect we'll see a couple of iterations with SARS, if it makes it global.

The spanish flu, unlike SARS, was actually worst for those that were HEALTHY, the highest casualty rates were found among young men in good health. This is quite unusual, and doesn't seem to be the case with SARS.

If most people experience SARS as a common cold or flu, with only a small percentage reporting severe breathing difficulties or needing medical attention, what is to say that the Western info on fatality or infection rates is accurate or representative?

On another note, it seems a cheap shot for Western armchair critics to complain about the recalcitrance of the Chinese government in coming out with accurate health statistics. It would certainly be nice if we had them, but I'd doubt it's even possible to get accurate statistics on these things, especially once one starts moving out of the major cities into places like... say... rural Guangdong.

I read last night we shot 169 cruise missles in to Iraq so far.

I'll see if I can find it.

I have a conspiracy theory. It emanates from the fact that the Chinese government is not only unwilling to provide accurate statistics, but has thus far denied WHO scientists access to Guangdong. Given that Guangdong is the acknowledged point of origin for SARS, locating the source of the disease could be a critical step in its eradication. The Chinese government would certainly want to facilitate this step, unless the disease originated in some biotech firm or government laboratory.

Of course, I just saw the movie 28 Days Later ...

BTW, this just proves that there's always important news going on. We're just so focused on the Iraq war that we don't have time for anything else.

"Have you noticed that when there's a newspaper strike, nothing happens? It's marvelous!" -- Michael Flanders

I have a conspiracy theory. It emanates from the fact that the Chinese government is not only unwilling to provide accurate statistics, but has thus far denied WHO scientists access to Guangdong. Given that Guangdong is the acknowledged point of origin for SARS, locating the source of the disease could be a critical step in its eradication. The Chinese government would certainly want to facilitate this step, unless the disease originated in some biotech firm or government laboratory.

Of course, I just saw the movie 28 Days Later ...

I read an article by a biologist years ago, who was studying species extinction in the rainforests. He suggested one effect of the loss of species diversitication was that things lower on the food chain tend to prey on the top. We're the top. It was called the "human meat market theory", I believe. Things like parasites, viruses tend to proliferate, when the food chain loses diversity. I wonder if this is what we are seeing? Mother nature attempting to balance out the overly successful human race? I'm wondering if anybody has any better information on how this is transmitted?

I live in Toronto. Have been out and about - shopping, dining in restaurants - over the past few days and have seen no masks, no evidence of concern ... though I gather that folks are staying away from the various "Chinatown" neighbourhoods, and I have seen local-tv footage of shoppers wearing masks.

Of the three who died, two (if I recall correctly) picked it up in Hong Kong (they were mother and son), where they stayed on a particular floor of a particular hotel that has since been identified as a secondary locus. The third, I recall, was an already-quite-ill man who had the misfortune to be in a bed beside one of those affected by SARS - before it was identified.

Those in quarantine are simply people who have been working at, or have visited, one of the two hospitals where the more serious cases were taken - and who MIGHT have the disease. They need to be quarantined for only 10 days or so, to make certain that they do not develop the disease. After that, they can leave quarantine.

US Customs & Immigration officers at nearby border crossings (Niagara Falls, Buffalo, etc.) have apparently been told to watch for people with respiratory problems - so you don't want to try to cross into the US if you have a cold! And airline personnel at Toronto's international airport have been encouraged to turn away anyone whose health is suspect (as they always have the right to do).

And, yes, there have been plenty of survivors - people who have had SARS but recovered.

One more thing: Local health officials - while obviosuly taking SARS seriously - have made the point that, so far at least, both the incidence of (and mortality rate from) SARS are less than that of more common types of flu at this time of year. Any visit to a hospital is always risky.

I blame a great deal of the panic on the increased reach and popularity of local all-news radio and tv stations!

Jeremy,

I've read some interesting articles about the same thing. The common theory is that in doing so much damage to the environments, species that kept other species in check are no longer in place. So we're seeing new diseases crop up from the imbalance.

Considering mankind knows less than 5% of the species on this planet, I find the theory very realistic and plausible.

The saying, "You don't know what you've got 'til it's gone." Comes to mind.

A recent article stated that despite media hype the death toll from SARS is actually less than many of the pandemic flus that sweep the globe yearly. This one, however, takes longer to recover from and tends toward pneumonia.

Good SARS link at CBC:
http://www.cbc.ca/news/sars/index.html

This is upsetting:
GENEVA, Switzerland, March 29 (UPI) -- Carlo Urbani, the Italian doctor who first identified a new deadly respiratory illness has himself died of the disease, the World Health Organization said Saturday.
WHO doctor dies of respiratory disease

I am in Brunei, Kb, and the worst thing is that The Brunei government object to that there is this "SARS-severe acute respiratory syndrome" present in Brunei. They keep on saying that they have checked everyone that came down from the plane arriving brunei but have never knew that the signs and symptoms WILL only persist after one or two weeks, by that time, it would already be too late! There's already a case in Chung Hua Middle School, Kuala Belait in Brunei, that a child has been sent to RIPAS hospital in Bandar as he might be infected with SARS- a very clever virus but a deadly one!

Somebody asked if there was a SARS blog. I'm keeping one at www.SARSwatch.org if you want to check it out.

Thanks,