Why would Franks let the Iraqis know something like that?

I'd short the markets now with news like this.

Exactly my question, Foo.

Probably because he's not going to wait until the 29th and that he's going to come in from the North...

The United States can only "wait" until March 29 if Iraq decides not to counterattack.

Could be mis-information.

Though I have a feeling they are looking for more support. They want to bring in more armour and use existing troops to protect our supply lines.

That and we can now sit back and bomb the Republican Guard for a few weeks. We accomplished what we wanted to in the South and North be seizing oil fields and port.

Franks never lets info like that out that I've seen. He is either losing it or sending a message to someone.

I take that back. Forget I ever said that.

I imagine that a lot of chaos and fragmentation can happen over 3 days in a place like Baghdad right now ...

People should demand the truth NOW!
I have a bad feeling and Franks just made it worse.

Or maybe it's more misinformation....

Wow thats a hot piece of news. The news networks havent picked it up yet. Lets start the clock and see when that explodes all over the place.

Fits what the Russians have been saying (latest translation at http://www.aeronautics.ru/news/news002/news078.htm). Has anyone seen any pictures of Umm Qsar town itsel (not the port as was shown on BBC)? The Russians said yesterday that they carpet bombed the place. Just trying to get a handle on accuracy of the russian reports.

Sounds prudent, I guess. But it must be a hard, hard pill to swallow for Bush, Rumsfeld & Co.

Interesting to see the media spin and public reaction to this, if true.

The United States can only "wait" until March 29 if Iraq decides not to counterattack.

counterattack? how and with what?

Franks is managing the public expectation of a big push on Baghdad now that we're on the doorstep. I'm not saying nothing will happen in the next 3 days; just that he's opening the PR door for that possiblity.

I can't get my feed to Iraqi Satellite TV to work. I just heard something on the news about coalition forces using an E-bomb to take out the station. Can anyone confirm that?

Anyone know the source of the Franks comment?

Brad said:
The United States can only "wait" until March 29 if Iraq decides not to counterattack.

Spencer replied:
counterattack? how and with what?

Well, Spencer, from behind and with rocks if that is what is necessary. If you don't recall, there was an incident called September 11th in which some terrorists used some pretty unconventional weapons to bring the U.S. to its knees. If you haven't noticed, there have been reports of sniper attacks, flanking attacks and suicide attacks that have taken the lies of American - oh pardon me, "coalition" - forces. So, I imagine that they will continue to "counterattack" in the exact same methods that they are now. According to the powers that be in the Bush "administration" Iraq is a threat to the U.S. and its allies. So, in order to be a threat, they must have weapons. So, if they have weapons, they have something to counterattack with. Any other questions?

Franks is probably being open and informative just like when he said that the war would start with massive "shock and awe" bombardments....

But hey, even if we can tell, it must fool those dumb Iraqis.

Some keep saying they want the "Truth". What do you mean? Do you want to know exactly what where the troops are? the attack date? the over all plan? If so get a grip. I dont think Ike cleared chit with your Grand-Dad and Rummy is not going to clear it with you. Join the service if you want to know what is going on in real time.

Turkey confirms troop deployment in Iraq
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/2885967.stm

From Sun Tzu 'ON THE ART OF WAR'

All warfare is based on deception.

19. Hence, when able to attack, we must seem unable; when using our forces, we must seem inactive; when we are near, we must make the enemy believe we are far away; when far away, we must make him believe we are near.

20. Hold out baits to entice the enemy. Feign disorder, and crush him.

21. If he is secure at all points, be prepared for him. If he is in superior strength, evade him.

22. If your opponent is of choleric temper, seek to irritate him. Pretend to be weak, that he may grow arrogant.

23. If he is taking his ease, give him no rest. If his forces are united, separate them.

24. Attack him where he is unprepared, appear where you are not expected.
____________

Remember these rules when you read CNN or the BBC websites

russian news.. "According to satellite reconnaissance it seems likely that the Iraqis had time to remove the captured Apache Longbow attack helicopter of the 11th Aviation Regiment. The pieces remaining at the landing site following a US bombing strike indicate that the bombs hit a crudely constructed mockup."

riiight, they just wanted you to think the us destroyed their helicopter.

That was all I needed to read to get BullShit Bingo ©

btw, the russian site says WE the US have changed our strategy to carpet bombing.

Debka reports the "popular" uprising is US fomented & that Basra will be taken before Bagdad. Any word on this?

It's a war of psyops, it's a war of information, it's a PR war.

Come on people, any bit of news coming from a HIGH RANKING MEMBER OF THE MILITARY should probably be taken with a grain of salt the size of a caddy.

That's not saying he won't do exactly as he stated... this is just saying that this kind of information will ask more questions that it answers, and that's exactly what we want to do. Confuse 'em.

The secret strategem of this war....

There WILL BE NO surprise strategem.

Sun Tzu would be proud.

Debka is speculating. I'll speculate further that it was a joint Coalition/Iranian/Iraqi resistance operation in Basra.

if the franks bit is true and not disinformation (i am somewhat more inclined to believe the latter, but who knows, since getting people to think something is disinformation when it isn't is also a useful tactic), two things:

his people need to rest. reading reports from the embeds shows pretty clearly that everyone is just exhausted.

and maybe he's waiting for the 4ID to get to kuwait, which appears planned for the end of this week.

The Franks story: sources and URLs please?

Of course, the US et al will be paralyzed with fear over a non-binding General Assembly vote and withdraw from Iraq. Saddam will collapse of heart failure.

Franks is simply recognizing reality. He is undermanned. The brass was right and Rummy was full of shit. This is his way of making the point.

"enough votes in the General Assembly to carry the vote in the event of a UNSC veto"

Look if we do not care what the counries of the UNSC say I do not see why we would care what ANYONE else says. The countries of the UNSC are pretty much the top of the food chain.

Daniel,
this is good comment and very useful. Only thing that I object to, is when these tactics are used on both the enemy and the friend.
In these case the public that gave it´s sons and daughters to be killed and the same ones who have to pay for the general´s mistakes.

Updated slide from DOD briefing today at GlobalSecurity.org.

http://globalsecurity.org/wmd/library/news/iraq/2003/030324-d-6570-003.jpg

Astonishing comment from Debka re: Basra uprising:

Majid Khoei, son of legendary Iraqi Ayatollah at head of 3,000-man US-backed Shiite militia is leading Basra unrest to stir up Shiite anti-Saddam uprising

OK, so we're now supporting Shiite fundamentalists to help depose the dicator we supported in his fight against...Shiite Fundamentalists.

Yeah, this should all work out real well in the end.

JDAMS reducing civilian casualties . . . hmm. Technically I think that's true. But when you're dropping bombs that can send shrapnel across a radius of three-quarters of a mile on a city with Bagdad's population density, there are bound to be scads of civilian casualties.

I am not seeing anything showing up in the news regarding the Franks comment. All I see is a reference on Debka that the push on Baghdad will not start until March 29.

Pedro,

I'm british. I have relatives in israel who's towns were not far off being hit by scuds in th last conflict. I'm pro-removing saddam, not sure about the war bit, but i will support the troops.

But, i know that if i was iraqi, i'd be defending my land with whatever tactics i could muster. I'm pretty sneeky, so they wouldn't be plesent tactics. God help the poor fool who tries to invade my bit of the UK...

Marines sieze hospital hiding Iraqi Slodiers

"counterattack? how and with what?"

Where are all the piles of tanks and artillery the Iraqis supposedly abandoned when they deserted?

Until someone shows it up front, I will continue to believe it might well show up on someone's perimeter at any time.

The Haliburton thing is on yahoo news. It is just to fight fires. How many people think Cheney took three bids on that one.

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story2&cid=1521&e=1&u=/afp/20030325/pl_afp/iraq_postwar_us_oil_1

time is off on recent posts, going back through the 6 oclock our it seems

Hey, has there been any confirmation of KG's earlier comment that MSNBC was saying 5000 ex-Iraqis in Jordan were going to return to the country to fight coalition soldiers? Because soon after that, someone said that the report actually said they were going to attack Hussein forces. But The Agonist is still stating the former. Which is the true deal?

Thanks!

Sean,

Not to bother you, but what's the source for the Franks story?

Iraqi TV still going strong. There is frequent blockyness, about every 30 seconds (but it's windy in Sweden)

Franks is simply recognizing reality

And he isn't saying anything in public that any Iraqi general couldn't figure out on his own.

Though the detail of the comment is very surprising; has he switched over to a long-sleeve shirt? :)

This is interesting news. My amature military analysis: Disengagement once the major battle begins at the spearhead could be very difficult and dangerous. Franks must be very sure that nothing serious can happen in the rear and he must have enough fuel and ammunition to breakout if the spear is cutoff. This kind of situation has led to the loss of large unit formations in WWII.

The Cav is certainly sleep-deprived, and at the rate they're going they would be damned near helpless by the time they got to Baghdad.

Not sure how the hardware is holding up, or could hold up, given intense duty cycles and all that sand.

Sitting still is scary too ... and moreso on a thin string a couple hundred miles long. All scary. Scarier if bridges get taken out behind them.

Great site.I expect to see more attacks on our supply lines.I also predict that Bagdhad will be where they are dug in-Saddams had years to do it.I also wonder when the Iraqi AF will make an appearance...?

I worked with the JStars program for 4 years and I can say for a FACT that anything larger then a VW Bug will show up on ground radar. JStars also has a very wide swath so this Iraqi sneak attack is NOT reality at all.

on the 5000 coming in from Jordan: that was on TV from the MSNBC reporter on the border. He specifically stated that these people were going in to defend their country against coalition forces. That they hated Saddam, but feared U.S. imperialism.

I expect the Iraqi Air Force to be just as effective as it was in 1991....non-existant!

globalsecurity.org has a lot of useful info. I am curious about their quotes regarding the number of us guided munitions- tomahawks, etc...- Is there a chance there will be a shortage of precision US munitions if this drags on?

http://www.fas.org/irp/program/collect/jstars.htm

Above link to more info on JStars

If the american radar systems are so great, could you please install them in the patriot missile batteries so they don't shoot down anymore RAF planes ?

PS. Great site

"time is off on recent posts"

My vote is for Central Time.. please change it back

:)

so we're now supporting Shiite fundamentalists

I've been cautioning about this sort of thing forever; now finally maybe people will begin to take notice.

There is an Arab proverb, "the enemy of my enemy is not necessarily my friend."

The Shi'ites of Iraq still hate the US for Daddy Bush selling them out 12 years ago. Why else does anyone thing the invading troops have not been welcomed with open arms?

Peter S:

I wouldn't pretend to speak for Sean, but I think the sources for a lot of this stuff are unavailable, deep-background, off the charts, whatever you want to call them.

That's sort of the price we're paying to read this stuff. Whether it's rumor or fact, history will have to decide.

Daniel,
I understand your position and share it myself.
I still think that this war could have been avoided.

If the Brits Tornado Friend or Foe beacon was not working the patriot did its job. The radar worked just fine for it picked up an incoming.

Too bad we didn't adopt the Roman custom of having the Leaders go with the troops they endanger.

Enough about Halliburton already! There are only 2 US oilfield services companies up to the scale of the rebuilding in Iraq, Halliburton and Schlumberger, and Schlumberger is French owned, with ties to the Chirac administration.

With those being the choices available, SOMEBODY with political connections is going to get the contract, regardless of who it is.

I've done contract work for Schlumberger, and their management are bastards, worse political infighting than I've seen in the American Fortune 500.

Who would you give the contract to, the Russians, to reward them for THEIR support?

British oilfield services firms aren't large enough to handle it, but I'm sure they will get some sub-contracts.

At least get a little background on that industry before getting all bent out of shape about things, sheesh.

...they just wanted you to think the US destroyed their helicopter..

That downed Cobra looked pretty intact.

Perhaps the Russians are in the middle of a little autopsy exam...

http://www.usatoday.com/tech/world/iraq/2003-03-25-al-jazeera-hack2_x.htm

Al-jazeera English website has problems

Please pray for all victims, thanks.

David:

Are you saying there's a monopoly in oilfield services companies? And this is a good thing?

The difference this time is they are fighting for their own country now.

Oh, i'm not pro-war, I believe that end may possibly justify the means. I guess we'll find that out when it all finishes.

My original quote from the art of war was just hoping to highlight the fact that all news footage should also be considered munitions.

In the uk, we get different footage to the USA (the BBC tell us that). However, you may get different Iraqi information. The information CNN beams around the world may be differnt to the 'local' USA version. I don't know, i'll never find out.

Never trust the news. It is truly an information war of the highest degree.

very wide swath so this Iraqi sneak attack is NOT reality at all.

And of course no Iraqi tank has ever showed up out of nowhere to surprise anyone on the other side.

Please.

http://www.msf.org/content/page.cfm?articleid=E698DF57-3941-459B-B322E951FA1DBF1C

medecins sans frontieres report from Baghdad Mar.22.

Please pray for all victims. Thank you.

talent - apparently the tornadoe was flying back in the correct manner for an aircraft having difficulties. Slow speed in a correct airspace location.

Prehaps if the patriot missile oporators took a few less coffee breaks, they might not target any more F16's either

Here's a reality check on just how bad this nation has gotten. It's from the Washington Post. Something suspicious is in the air...

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A16791-2003Mar23.html

Just a general comment:

Not only is this site remarkable for it's speed and thoroughness, it's also unfailingly well-written and free of misspellings and typos. Considering how quickly this work has to be done, that's amazingly impressive.

Once again, major props.

A few tanks can show up but they are not out of no where. JStars shows everything on the battlefield and it can not tell friend from foe but what it can show you is armor in mass or massing for an attack. Sure a few can pop up being mistaken as our armor but again the numbers needed for a counter attack mentioned is not going to "pop-up". We will or show see that right away. I Korea we would watch the NK mass all the time for drills and could count them.

I agree about the tornada but your post was the radar was not working right and all I was saying is that the radar looked to be working just fine or the Tornada never would have been shot down.

Talent: In your opinion, how much would a thick sandstorm like the one over the last 24 hours affect a look-down radar like JSTARS? None, some, all?

Just curious how much effect it is having tactically.

I've been getting comments regarding (on other sites) a question: this emphasis on light troops and speed imperils the US if Iran and Syria take Sharon's arguments and Perle-Wolfowitz's (idiotic, in my view) public statements that Syria and Iran are next in line. What would prevent them from making an effort to join forces with the Iraqis? I know that there are cultural differences between Iran and Iraq and the whole history of their war, but there are certain common threats, now.

I wouldn't pretend to speak for Sean, but I think the sources for a lot of this stuff are unavailable, deep-background, off the charts, whatever you want to call them.

That's sort of the price we're paying to read this stuff. Whether it's rumor or fact, history will have to decide.

I cannot speak for Sean either, but one advantage of the Agonist has been its greater measure of credibilty, and the breadth of its sources.

A reputable source can only add to those strengths, not unsubstantiated rumors.

Daily Kos has an interesting piece written by a putative expert.

A dense cloud would give a false reading but what is under the sand cloud would still show up. I can not really get into how the radar works but I can say it is not like the radar that is used in Aircraft or things like that. A sand storm would have the same effect as if you were looking into night vision goggles. In the respect that it would be grainy but you can still make out the image.

Wonder how many CIA agents use sites like this to spread disinformation ? lol

Anyway, i'm going to bed (its 1 AM in the UK). Keep up the good work. I'll see what we've blown up on the morning BBC news.

It is easy to understand why they may have gone to a light's out policy in Baghdad; It has gotten out that we are scaling back the use of precision guided munitions, and the Iraqis don't want to give us landmarks for bombing. It didn't matter so much before as the bombs "knew" where the target was lit or not.

Ed333, chilling story from the Post!

The coalition grows- Moroccan support may be clandestinely involved.

http://www.upi.com/view.cfm?StoryID=20030324-064259-1443r

CNN is showing vials of Atropine (Anthrax? antidote) found at that hostpital in Nasariyah along withthe gas masks and weapons.

Shock and Awe (Napalm?)

Here's a suspect piece from Mar 22:

http://edition.cnn.com/2003/WORLD/meast/03/21/otsc.irq.savidge/

I should point out that the "shock and awe" in southern Iraq took place last night.

[...]

It is now estimated the hill was hit so badly by missiles, artillery and by the Air Force, that they shaved a couple of feet off it. And anything that was up there that was left after all the explosions was then hit with napalm. And that pretty much put an end to any Iraqi operations up on that hill.

JStars shows everything on the battlefield

I love it, we finally have the perfect intelligence device, and it is always available.

Now, if we could only eliminate those stupid humans who cannot keep track of every vehicle and solder on the battlefield, friendly or otherwise, 24/7.

This thing a satellite? Must be nice to have so many you can keep one small part of the planet under constant surveillance.

RE: Waiting until the 29th.

Does it occur to anyone that the wait may be because Blair and Bush meet tomorrow and Thursday. At the meeting they must decide how they will level Baghdad and how many cubic tons of blood will be spilled.

The thinking of the US typically centers on 1) how does it avoid unrest at home in the wake of such bloodshed and 2) how does it mitigate its military casualties. It is claimed that these two factors persuaded Truman to use the nuclear fireball on Hiroshima and Nagasaki.

It may also be that Russia and China have put the Anglo Saxons and New Europe on notice that the leveling of Baghdad will not be tolerated.

A third possibiity is that the US military itself does not want to scar its reputation forever by the terrible close-in mayhem for which it will be held accountable. Many, many civilians will be killed during what is dubbed to be a war for the ideals of democracy and non-proliferation.

This is a terrible moment.

Atropine is a nerve gas counter-agent.

Not only is this site remarkable for it's speed and thoroughness, it's also unfailingly well-written and free of misspellings and typos. Considering how quickly this work has to be done, that's amazingly impressive.

Not only that, but compare it to CNN, or Fox, or any other major news organization. These outfits have a thousand times more resources, but they still can't tell the difference between "Brian" and "Brain."

Yeah, I admit it. I'm anal about these kinds of things. :)

I'm watching BBC news at the momment - the sandstorm is nasty. There are lots of marines complaining.

Just had a thought - I think the french are selling the iraqi millitary chiefs their berets - thats why they're so anti-war.

Partisan: Atropine is an antidote for chemicals such as mustard gas (or any other cholinesterase inhibitor)

This must be disinformation...the info is just too precise, too much what the Iraqis might want to hear.

It's also quite plausible. We ARE overextended right now.

From Sun Tzu 'ON THE ART OF WAR'
All warfare is based on deception.

There are many key thoughts in this anonymous post.

Israel's MOSSAD accepts the same precept: their motto is "By way of deception, thou shalt do war."

http://nytimes.com/2003/03/25/international/worldspecial/25CND-AIR.html

In short, that Russian site is showing itself to be at least a day ahead of the news.

Hey, i'm not anonymous, i'm here

Following up on what Foo posted above, Sean-Paul, have you heard any information on an Iranian connection to the alleged Basra uprising? I just got done watching News Hour Col. W. Patrick Lang suggested that in passing. Thanks.

Atropine is also an anesthetic

re. the napalm, it was also reported in the age (oz newspaper site) as having been specifically reconfirmed by their reporter. it was up on cnn, then removed from the report, then reinstated...which makes you think they must have some confidence in it. the US (naturally) haven't signed up to the international treaty that banned napalm 1980, but 'claim' they destroyed all stocks in 1993 (US of course has thousands of tons of mutard gas and VX too). for what it's worth, i don't think napalm use could make US govt any more morally bankrupt than it is after JDAM or MOAB, but it's a PR screwup that's for sure, what with the 'nam and all.

"It is now estimated the hill was hit so badly by missiles, artillery and by the Air Force, that they shaved a couple of feet off it. And anything that was up there that was left after all the explosions was then hit with napalm. And that pretty much put an end to any Iraqi operations up on that hill."

Gee, which is worse, to be killed by poison gas, or burned alive with napalm? Is it worse to be killed by your own leader, or the leader of another country?
Inquiring minds want to know.

Keith Olbermann has an ESPN moment on MSNBC: "...in Iraq, where it truly can be said, 'the Shiites have hit the fan.' Back in a moment."

someone asked earlier about the refugees

found a site discussing it, no idea on credability

story

in case i didn't get link right, been a while

http://thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2003/3/26/nation/pkjordan2&sec=nation

Talent-

...we do not care what the counries of the UNSC say...

I take your broader point -- the U.S. would have invaded no matter what the Security Council said -- but that still doesn't mean that we didn't care.

Bush promised a vote in the SC "no matter what the whip count is." But Bush changed his mind after a weekend's arm-twisting failed to secure a majority, never mind convincing the permanent members not to veto.

So they care alright. The administration constantly refers to the 30+ countries nominally in its corner in an effort to dispel the more-right-than-not notion that it's U.S.-U.K. versus the world. I expect Negroponte is hard at work right now trying to scuttle any vote on the floor.

Is the "Basra uprising" really just another invasion from a U.S. trained force?

debka.com thinks so.

Franks counteracted by throwing into the arena a secret weapon, a 3,000-man opposition Shiite militia organized by Majid al-Khoei, the 34-year old son of Ayatollah Khoei, the legendary piritual leader of Iraq’s Shiites. The militia, trained and funded by the US war command, waited in Qatar for the signal to go into action.Monday night, March 25, the Shiite militiamen reached the southern outskirts of Basra at the same time as Uday Hussein’s agents entered from the north. Trapped between the two foes were elements of the British 7th Armored Division’s “Desert Rats” positioned in the southern and western sections of Basra. ...It also inspired the fervent hope expressed by US defense secretary Donald Rumsfeld at his news briefing that the Basra uprising would succeed.

For what that's worth...

I just berated a buddy of mine who said I was getting carried away with this site, etc.
"Any tough guy is sending out his emissaries even as I type this to acquire a weapon of horrible effect. Such a weapon will be stored for a rainy day (I won't say where). Am I getting through to you now? Would you call the bad guys' bluffs as you send in the marines?"
The diplomats who resigned after long careers in the service (three at last count) all said the same thing, but in diplomatic terms.
The price of liberty is eternal vigilance, someone said. The USA replaced the human element with machines, esp. in the intel (spy) trade and got burned, probably still is.
Let's continue to look for the truth, no matter how painful. The 'tough' guys out there really don't like to get their hands dirty, and they fear the light. We have an awesome weapon ourselves - the Internet.

Pray for all victims. Thank you.

urban combat article

url if i biffed it
http://fmso.leavenworth.army.mil/FMSOPUBS/ISSUES/hippocrates.htm

Atropine can be found in the pharmarcy of every hospital inthe western world-- its uses are many, and its presence at Al Nasariyah proves nothing.

"The resolution is certain to be blocked in the 15-nation council, where Washington and London possess veto power."

What? Saint Tony Blair use an "unreasonable veto"? Say it ain't so!

Not if it was in an autoinjector..designed to be used by troops dressed in heavy MOP gear!

Someone please explain to me why it's suspicious for the Iraqis to have gas masks, and chemical protective suits, and atropine, or anything else that PROTECTS against chemical and biological attack? Especially since the U.S. has yet to find a shred of evidence that Iraq does indeed have "weapons of mass destruction"?

Debka may be where the Tommy Franks March 29 news came from:

"At the last minute, the 4th Division had to be diverted to the Suez Canal for shipment to Kuwait. In another change of plan, the division’s troops have been put ashore at the Saudi Red Sea port of Yanbo, to be lifted by helicopter and truck to western Jordan and Iraq. Their destination there is Al Ramadi (shown on DEBKAfile map). Their heavy tanks will be delivered separately aboard 16 US freighters due to pass through the Suez Canal Tuesday night on their way to Yanbo.

All this means that by Saturday, March 29, the scheduled day of assault, not all the sectors of the Baghdad battlefront will be fully manned in time."

http://www.debkafiles.com/

"It's a war of psyops, it's a war of information, it's a PR war."

Yes. The US public is part of the "enemy" during the war.

George,
I do pray for the victims and I do agree with you.
Dead American boys are not heros. They are dead like their ´foes´.
Stop the killing now and don´t call the bad guys´ bluff.

BTW mustard gas is not a cholinesterase inhibitor-- it is a caustic agent, which causes chemical burns on the skin and lungs.

raven -

Joint STARS or JSTARS is a aircraft based ground radar system that can create a radar map of an area, then track moving targets on it -- usually vehicles. It can often distinguish between wheeled and tracked vehicles and different sizes of vehicles. It was used while still in development during Desert Storm

http://globalsecurity.org/intell/systems/jstars.htm

maybe kay is right and saddam has no WMD......and maybe OJ is innocent!

Edub: no, not quite a monopoly, and if it were anything smaller than this rebuilding, there would be more players, but not many have experience managing oilfield services operations on the scale things will be in Iraq.

If you look at the world wide field of companies in that industry, there're maybe a half dozen that could pull it off, but aside from Halliburton, all of the rest are mostly French or Russian owned.

Like many industries, the oil companies have been outsourcing more and more in recent years, concentrating oilfieled operations experience in a small handfull of firms.

So, much less of a monopoly than in, say, desktop operating systems, but your few choices for large scale oilfield services operations are going to be divided along various geopolitical lines, with only one or 2 having been sorted out between the US, Europeans and Russians, with Britain a bit behind.

We have chemical suits, althought there has been some question as to their readiness. We have antidotes. I would imagine that most armies with large budgets do. These are defensive measures.

Can the Moroccan mine-detonating monkeys really be counted as part of any "Coalition of the Willing"? Or are they more properly fitted into the "Coalition of the Obedient"?

Sean-Paul, thank you for this site, it has great information that all should read and come to their own conclusions..Lots more info than main stream media has..Thanks again, I have added this site to my "Favs".

Scott

Sandstorms = US delays & equipment failures = Iraq's Divine Wind ?

I guess that means that every hospital I've ever worked in must have had a stash of chemical weapons, since every crash cart had a injector of atropine ( with needles big enough to punch through heavy material)

Great stuff Sean-Paul, I just got back from a business trip and this was the first thing I checked for the updates over the last 24hours or so. Been with you from the outset, (cheers cursor.org) staying with you .. here's hoping for a lull so you can take a breather

I can not really get into how the radar works

Phased array radar, quite possibly gigahertz, big deal.

Oops, did I reveal some state secret? I'll go tell all my astronomer buddies they're doing something illegal.

J-Stars (Info)

The E-8C, a modified Boeing 707, carries a phased-array radar antenna in a 26-foot canoe-shaped radome under the forward part of the fuselage. The radar is capable of providing targeting and battle management data to all Joint STARS operators, both in the aircraft and in the ground station modules. These operators, in turn, can call on aircraft, missiles or artillery for fire support. With a reported range in excess of 155 miles, this radar can cover an estimated 386,100 square miles in a single eight-hour sortie.

Wide Area Surveillance and Moving Target Indicator (WAS/MTI) are the radar's fundamental operating modes. WAS/MTI is designed to detect, locate and identify slow-moving targets. Through advanced signal processing, Joint STARS can differentiate between wheeled and tracked vehicles. By focusing on smaller terrain areas, the radar image can be enhanced for increased resolution display. This high resolution is used to define moving targets and provide combat units with accurate information for attack planning.

Synthetic Aperture Radar/Fixed Target Indicator (SAR/FTI) produces a photographic-like image or map of selected geographic regions. SAR data maps contain precise locations of critical non-moving targets such as bridges, harbors, airports, buildings, or stopped vehicles.

The FTI display is available while operating in the SAR mode to identify and locate fixed targets within the SAR area. The SAR and FTI capability used in conjunction with MTI and MTI history display allows post-attack assessments to be made by onboard or ground operators following a weapon attack on hostile targets.

Joint STARS operates in virtually any weather, on-line, in real-time, around the clock. The augmented Army-Air Force mission crew can be deployed to a potential trouble spot within hours and provide valuable data on ground force movements.

Major advanced technological elements of the program include the software-intensive radar with several operating modes; the unique antenna with three receive ports; four high-speed processors capable of performing more than 600 million operations per second; and the associated software.

re. khoei's followers in uprising in basra, that would figure as they were involved in uprisings in '92, & 100 arrested by saddam apparently disappeared:

http://www.hrw.org/reports/1992/Iraq926.htm

!!!!!How can you post something about a possible terrorist air assault on Washington DC and not source it or update it?

I just got in from taking a break and read through the comments and noticed a lot of references to Debka. Just so people are aware of it, their information doesn't always end up checking out. I read it every day but some skepticism is warranted.

Atropine is an antidote for nerve agents -- not mustard or bateriological agents like anthrax. It has legitimate medical uses, The setting in which it was found would suggest what it's for. If it's not part of a collection of common hospital drugs, that would be a good indication of military purpose.

David:

Still kinda scary, especially when the current v.p. has a direct connection to one of the major companies involved. I know Supreme Court justices recuse themselves from decisions where they have a conflict of interest. It seems obvious to me that companies should do the same, if only to avoid the possibility of a conflict of interest. After all, that wouldn't be ethical, would it?

And the dig at Microsoft didn't go unnoticed, although I don't think it makes me a convert, exactly. :)

"the Apache unit had to withdraw due to heavy AA fire, and lost an Apache (it appears to have had a soft landing, with the crew picked up by a Blackhawk), and it is now in Iraqi hands." (source)

If the apache crew was picked up by a Blackhawk, then how to explain the 2 helicopter pilot POWs. Maybe this gives credence to the Iraqi claim that there were 2 helicopters shot down.

i mentioned it before and it's even on http://www.metafilter.com now, so:

http://www.thememoryhole.org/war/gulfwar2/
http://www.thememoryhole.org

for the pictures http://www.yellowtimes.org wasn't allowed to show.

i know there's propaganda going on, this isn't meant to be, so relax and just report or read:
http://www.democracynow.org/fisk.htm

http://www.fromthewilderness.com/free/ww3/032503_perfect_storm_2.html

We who delve into the conspiracy sites are probably familiar with Ruppert, both his positives and his negatives.

I post this with the warning to read it with a large degree of critical skepticism.

But, really, how improbable is this piece, in terms of the Desire for several nations to give the US a black eye, and for the financial and political elites in the US/UK to buffer themselves from potential fall out by scapegoating the likes of Perle, Wolfowitz, and even Rummy, Cheney, and GWB? Or will Powell take all the heat?

It may not be a conspiracy, per se, but instead a coming together of various factors all at the same moment...

I found this browsing but it must be overwhelmed or down. Al Jeerza goes english! Has anyone been here? I understand ti been up for several hours so if this is old information, my apologies.
http://english.aljazeera.net/

Diesel, the US is home to dozens of chemical and biological weapons manufacturing and storage sites; to nuclear weapons makers, storage facilities, waste dumps, and research facilities; to the School of the Americas and other terrorism training camps; we are the refuge of many former dictators and war criminals; we are the only country to have deployed nuclear weapons in open war; we have invaded numerous countries to install the regime of our choice; and we have certainly used our share of other "weapons of mass distruction". I hardly think we can claim the high moral ground, in a historical or current context.

However, all I was asking was: what is the fuss about having gas masks etc.? I have no doubt that if Saddam Hussein thinks he can get away with using chemical or biological warfare, he will. But finding preventive measures is not a smoking gun, and I don't understand why it's being considered so significant.

http://news.ft.com/servlet/ContentServer?pagename=FT.com/StoryFT/FullStory&c=StoryFT&cid=1048313131236&p=1012571727085

Iraq doing well in the verbal sparring dept.

Pray for all victims. Thank you.

All of you folks who want to converse/argue with each other should take it elsewhere. It's not illuminating to the rest of us. Sean-Paul has asked us to keep it short and relevant. He doesn't need to wade thru all this garbage. If you don't stop, we're going to lose the option.

3 Iraqi brigades east of Basra. What are their capabilities? Effect on possible uprising? (as reported by www.channel4/news on the video of their 1 hour evening news).

Much better reporting and analysis than BBC TV and way above american news networks.

Based on the US use of CS (strong tear gas), and the behaviour of that gas in the Waco incident, and in the Russian Theater incident...and based on the US declaration that it MAY (meaning will if necessary) use "calmatives" like CS in this conflict, I would imagine that the possession on the part of the Iraqis of gas masks should hardly be a surprise, nor is it evidence of WMD violation.

Atropine is common in hospitals and also has miliatry (CW) applications, so that is a bit more dicey, but still not conclusive evidence of anything.

Another thing, what about the idea that the gas mask itself is a wonderful tool for fighting during a sandstorm: Eyes covered, face protected, and breathing unimpeded by flying dust and grit?

I would certainly use a gasmask under those conditions, and I am surprised that the US mil hasn't explored the use of gasmasks or a derivative of same for exactly those kinds of conditions.

What's the news on the use of Napalm?

What's the news on Iran?

David--

Surely Bush could find someone other than HAL or SLB to do the job.

Recall that his Harken Energy was contracted to develop offshore fields for Bahrain despite Harken's backwards trifecta: "shaky financial condition, the company had never drilled a well anywhere but Texas, Louisiana, and Oklahoma, and had never drilled undersea at all."

So have faith, David, Bush is a man of miracles.

Talent, thank you. I won't ask you about background noise levels in various types of terrain as that probably is a state secret.

However, consider the following scenario: an Iraqi tank division (how big a frontage and depth does anyone think that would cover on the ground?) gets pasted, a whole bunch of decision makers decide it has been effectively destroyed.

Only it hasn't been, the commander is just hunkering down in the middle of the wreckage.

At some appropriate time, he jumps out of hiding to paste a passing column in the flank.

What is the maximum distance he could travel to his intended target before this intelligence could be properly assessed by someone who could conceivably make a difference to the success or failure of General Omar's attack?

He doesn't need to wade thru all this garbage. If you don't stop, we're going to lose the option.

Nah. The noise is as interesting as the signal. Take a look at Slashdot. The only difference between Slashdot and this blog is the fact that Slashdot allows you to filter out the noise.

Sean-Paul mentioned setting up forums. It's a good idea, but based on the way he's currently blogging right now, setting up Slash might be *really* interesting.

Slash has a fast set-up if you know what you're doing, and the fact that it allows you to filter and moderate means we could really send the interesting stuff to the top and the boring debates back to the bottom.

Just my two cents.

http://www.slashcode.com

Anyone have any suggestions on RSS readers. I'm using Syndirella right now but the links aren't showing up.

I'm a newbie at this RSS stuff.

Thx

Al Jazeera's English website was purportedly the victim of denial-of-service attacks today.

Atropine is also used, if I'm not mistaken, in restarting the heart in cardiac arrest victims. Perfectly standard hospital fare. That aside, the Iraqis have good reason to have NBC equipment. They know we have chemical weapons. Remember where they got theirs in the first place?

BTW, if Sean-Paul implmented Slash, he'd be the hero of not only the news-junkies, but also the open source/slashdot/freshmeat/Linux crowd -- and then he'd most definitely become top-blogger.

(Sorta joking, but not really: Slash would be *way* cool here. Free code, easy to set-up, and comes with a legion of loyal followers ready to help with set-up, implementation, and configuration.)

An article about the tools of modern War:

Doomed to Fail: America’s Blind Faith in
Military Technology
© 2002 John A. Gentry
US Army War College
From Parameters, Winter 2002-03, pp. 88-103.

The full text is here:

http://carlisle-www.army.mil/usawc/Parameters/02winter/gentry.htm

Dan:

Good point. I heard that the US troops had chemical warfare suits (don't remember the right name) so I'm sure they have gas masks as well. But don't they have a limited duration of effectiveness? Also, I wonder if sandstorms would scratch the lenses and make it impossible to see.

for 5 days now i have been downloading this site and all your comments 6 times a day, and making my computer available to any who want to read. you all are keeping inhabitants of a tiny island in BC informed, piqued, inspired, and bemused. i emphasize informed. no tv, am radio that has fair sound from 2-4:30 am, and a general aversion to media glitz and bits can bring a sense of peace, but that sense is false; we need to know. you have given. thank you sean-paul, and all of you who work at sharing, and share your thinking.

Sean wrote, "I do not want to ban people from commenting. I really don't, but I am getting xlose."

Hmm. I always follow the comments as well, and I can't even find a flame war to match those found in ye average Computer related discussion group. Even the language seems mild. What / who precisely is the problem Sean?

I mean, this is an international group discussing an ultra violent war. A bit of, umm, tension, er, disagreement, even downright hostility should surely be par for the course?

If the topic was flower arranging I would quite see your point. However the topic is general homicide and mayhem on a countrywide scale, so things are bound to, indeed should, get a little fraught.

Are we to descend into Anglo style, "Please we're British, emotions are _so_ messy."?

If you are doing your job well, and you are in fact doing the best job of reporting that I have found on the web after a considerable search, then people should, nay, must respond with increasing intensity.

My biggest fear is that the people will turn into couch potatos that view the war like another episode on telly and..and..and..
DO NOTHING!

John Carter:

I agree. The comments here are pretty tame by internet standards. MoveableType doesn't really lend itself to extensive commenting -- no multiple threads, moderation, or anything sophisticated -- but considering the viciousness going on in most of the world, the folks here seem downright tame -- even when taking sides, getting uptight, and mildly misbehaving!

I don't think people will turn into couch potatoes. They will, however, probably start to tune out as news overload overtakes them. This is entirely natural and nothing to be worried about.

Let's not forget that this comments thing takes bandwidth, and Sean isn't exactly sitting there twiddling his thumbs. In fact, I don't know how he does it -- but I'm glad he does!

Excellent site. Good job Sean.

RSS findings ?

try http://www.feedster.com/

don't know about its reach, compelling though...

Sean's name (and reputation) is on this blog, which is read worldwide. He gets to set the rules, which are not unreasonable.

IMHO, it's a matter of credibility and civility how we communicate here.

Anybody any sources (besides agonist) for
1) Franks statement (no move until 29th)
2) Terror attack threat in D.C

sorry if repeat

Does anyone have more information on what's going on with the 7th cav? I'm concerned. Family.

Sorry S-P, all, I forgot to add this tag . Won't happen again.

I agree with John Carter and Illicit Taxonomy. This is for the most part a rather civilized crowd here, compared to lots of other sites. Passion is OK, as long as you respect each other's right to hold different opinions.

"Bob Gramm" is a typo. --> Bob Graham.
If Bush "sold" the American public on the softest scenario, it was only effective because that was what the American public was buying. We're all in it together, both through the principle of covenantal representation and also through the fact that Bush has had a huge base of support at all levels. Even if "Bush cloaked likelihood of long, deadly war," the American public is still corporately responsible for whatever we're doing in Iraq. I'm no expert in military history and yet NOTHING about the way this war is developing is any surprise to me. If it comes as a surprise to anyone, it seems only reasonable to conclude that those people were willingly deceived.

Raven, Sure that could happen and I am not going to say it will not. Durring Desert Storm I seen images of Iraqi tanks that were thought to be distroyed and later only to find out that the Iraqi strapped on junk and set the outside of the tank on fire using gas or oil. This was very effective and cost us a few of our own but things like this would not work with attacking troops but would work fine as a sort of defence. So again I am not worried about a flanking Iraqi force that is going to "pop-up" out of no where.

Peter Shriner: people tolerate, even encourage, the nonsense that goes on between politicians. Nothing here comes close to resembling that.

There have been occasional losses of cool, but they are for the most part rare. I have lost my cool more than once.

That is a far cry from the ad hominem "debate" that goes on elsewhere, and if you want to see the worst of it, tune in to Congress or Parliament, or to some other site where political partisanship is a requirement (so long as it's the correct flavour, of course).

Talent, IMO you are relying on technology far too much. There seems to be no place in your scenario for the human element.

No fancy radar is ever going to be able to tell you whether one manoeuver is a feint, the other one the real attack.

And the bottom line is, as it always has been, that the fastest and most sophisticated technology in the universe is absolutely no good to anyone, unless there is a grunt with a rifle dug in somewhere in a foxhole.

I am out of the loop today but for years I was in the loop. I have seen what technology can and has done. Just look at the battle we find our self in today. 2/3 of Iraq has been taken not because we ant to more then the Iraqis want to defend it but because of that technology that I do rely on. Sure the human factor is always part of just as in the case of the Tornado that was shot down but over all technology will win out. I do also relize that technology is going to do nothing for the terror attacks, changing the minds of people, making new friends or new foes.

Thanks for the talk Raven. Im moving on to the top comments section. See ya there.

Talent

V -- There are reports of a major engagement completed hours ago, with the Cav taking 300-500 enemy killed, no Cav killed.

This is in all probability wrong on all counts, but sounds like they got the best of it. Keep fingers crossed.

V -- P.S. suggest tuning in CNN, especially after midnite US time ... their 7th Cav embed has best reports AFAIK.

Could someone give me info on the ships that were off Turkey but are now going thru the Suez? I understand they carry divisions that are bigger than the ones we already have on the ground. I also heard that they will take 12-14 days to arrive off of Iraq. If that's the case, the 29th isn't so far fetched, disinformation not withstanding. Tnanks

Effie: I thought that that Harken contract was idioicy at the time and still do. They almost certainly just subcontracted almost all of it and just skimmed off top of the profit for 'administration'.

I still think HAL and SLB would be the most competent at it, and obviously SLB is NOT going to get it after what Chirac has pulled lately. SLB are right bastards, but they get the job done.

Edub: Regrading the conflict of interest thing, Cheney has had to put all of his assests in a blind trust, same as every other Pres. and VP, and yes I know that influence still matters for who gets what juicy contracts.

I think Chirac was probably so hardline against the US in the UNSC because he KNEW SLB and TotalElfFina would get screwed post-conflict, whether France was in favor of war or not.

No one would even have to tell him, it would just be kinda obvious on its face.

300-500 Iraqi dead and no casualty for the coalition force in an Iraqi ambush? Then it's likely that over 1000 Iraqis were involved in this ambush.. How can you not have casualties when you get ambushed by over 1000 troops.. If it's ture, then it's not a battle, it's a slaughter.

Question: Has anyone heard about US troops in places they aren't supposed to be? Have it from a military wife that her guy is somewhere "the media doesn't know about" and she "can't say" where.

As to WMD evidence, one theory I've seen posited, but not mentioned here is that so far, Saddam has not used WMD, so he can maintain his line that he does not have them. As soon as we prove that he does, and he can no longer maintain the fiction, he will have no incentive not to use them. This might explain why we made a lot of noise at first about the 100 acre, military run, camouflaged, electric fence-protected facility, and then immediately backed off of the claim that it had chem weapons. For the time being, protecting our troops trumps proving Saddam's perfidy. Speculative, but plausible.

"Saddam has not used WMD, so he can maintain his line that he does not have them."

Ah... because he's afraid that if people think he has WMDs America might invade or something? What purpose does it serve to have WMDs if you won't use them when you're facing almost certain destruction? If the need to maintain secrecy of them means they are never used then it's just much easier to actually get rid of them.

What do you think of all the (failed) predictions about how Saddam would use WMDs? I cannot remember anyone going into this war predicting that although Saddam had WMDs he'd never use them in the defence of Iraq, because he would consider it more important to "maintain his line" than to cause American casualties.

To those who still pretend Saddam has WMDs can any of you say under what circumstances you would change your mind? Or is the beleif in these weapons basically an article of faith for those who hold to it? Something that can never be falsified?