This article, via TBogg, sheds some more light on who really is to blame for the North Koreans having nukes.
"In fact," says Windrem, " the CIA first revealed the North’s nuclear capability on Feb. 25, 1992, when then-CIA Director Robert M. Gates shocked the House Foreign Affairs Committee by saying his agency’s best guess was that North Korea would have a nuclear capability in “a few months to as much as a couple of years.”
Moreover, Windrem writes, "[L]ittle was done diplomatically or militarily in what turned out to be the final days of the first Bush administration, as the United States let the International Atomic Energy Agency take the lead in dealing with the North. It wasn’t until June of 1993, in the first months of the new Clinton administration, that the U.S. finally engaged the North."
The course of events that has unfolded before our eyes is quite amazing:
The "pros," as Bush I's foreign policy team was called, left "the amateurs" a big problem. Actually two, let's not forget Somalia. "The Amateurs" then mapped out a bad policy, a policy that was, however, the least worst option available. The holes in "The Amateurs'" policy were in the process of being plugged when "the pros" came back into office.
What did "the pros" do?
Same thing they did before: nothing.
But then they realized that the amateurs weren't around to dump the problem on, so they started blaming them. While they were blaming them they subtly adopted "the amateurs'" policy, pretty much in toto. They even hired one of the vile amateurs' freelancers to help them.
Why am I so upset at this? It's not the policy, per se, that bothers me. It is the lies, the games and the arrogance. They made a massive mistake here. Period. As I wrote in an email to Jay earlier today: "[F]or months now this administration has blamed Clinton, called the 1994 agreement appeasement and put forth no option of their own.
Certainly Clinton should share some of the blame, but not all of it. Not a chance. Usually I am pretty sanguine about things like this but the hash this administration has made of this and then to cap it all off by practically adopting the Clinton method is too much.
I am sick and tired of hearing that every time there is a problem it is Clinton's fault and then of course everything good that happened during his administration was due to the "Republican' controlled Congress. It's bulls**t. [If] the blame goes both ways so does the credit.
As you are one of the few Conservative bloggers that gives credit where credit is due, I am sure that you see my point."
Posted by Sean-Paul @ 01/13/2003 07:17 PM
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Comments:
I have a couple of problems with this notion that North Korea already has nukes (I mean other than the fact that they've denied it).
(1) If they have nukes and America supposedly knew about it way back then, why did the Bush regime give North Korea a clean bill of health on conforming to the Agreed Framework last year?
(2) If the North Koreans already had a nuclear weapon in 1994 then creating new nukes wouldn't actually be a breach of the Agreed Framework - because it would only come under the "goal" provision of pursuing a nuclear free Korea not the obligation of the Non-Proliferation Treaty (that doesn't prevent existing nuclear powers making more nukes). If America thought NK already had nukes in '94 then asking them to abide by the NPT would be practically pointless if they just wanted to stop NK making nukes for home "consumption".
Posted by: DavidByron on January 13, 2003 09:12 PM
David,
In 1992, CIA has reported that NK had produced maybe like 6-10 kilos of plutonium, which would be enough for maybe a nuke, maybe two. We worked under assumption North Korea had them and NPT was designed to stop them from producing more either for "consumption" or "sale". Bush never gave NK a clean bill of health, though.
kinda like when clinton left office and left some deals with nKorea unsigned for the Bush administration to deal with. remember he was promising to go to nKorea and be the first american president that did.. and then he didn't? bush the elder was probably the 2nd worst president in modern history but a distant 2nd behind carter.
Posted by: Wesley Dabney on January 14, 2003 11:05 AM
The Bush regime said North Korea was in conformance with the Agreed Framework as recently as last May or March (some 'M' month I forget which).
The calculations on what NK *might* have are a worst case analysis based on simply guessing how much plutonium their reactor *might* have produced and subtracting what they allowed the inspectors to see.
It is not based on intelligence that would specifically indicate a bomb had been made. possibly such intelligence does exist, but that calculation is not based on it.
The Agreed Framework doesn't specifically ban nuclear weapons, but only indirectly through demanding the North koreans abide by the Non-Proliferation Treaty.
Posted by: DavidByron on January 14, 2003 01:40 PM
