These are just first impressions. Please remember that. There will be more.
Sanger and Dao report:
"[T]he Pentagon is preparing for at least a year and a half of military control of Iraq, with forces that would keep the peace . . . [and] keep the country whole."
The Turks need to hear this. Bigtime.
"A civilian administrator — perhaps designated by the United Nations — would run the country's economy, rebuild its schools and political institutions, and administer aid programs. Placing those powers in nonmilitary hands, administration officials hope, will quell Arab concerns that a military commander would wield the kind of unchallenged authority that Gen. Douglas MacArthur exercised as supreme commander in Japan."
I personally see the administration's reasoning behind this but I think it is a bad idea.
"Only "key" senior officials of the Hussein government "would need to be removed and called to account," according to an administration document summarizing plans for war trials. People in the Iraqi hierarchy who help bring down the government may be offered leniency."
Good. Very good.
"The administration plan says, "Government elements closely identified with Saddam's regime, such as the revolutionary courts or the special security organization, will be eliminated, but much of the rest of the government will be reformed and kept."
This is as it should be.
"While publicly saying Iraqi oil would remain what one senior official calls "the patrimony of the Iraqi people," the administration is debating how to protect oil fields during the conflict and how an occupied Iraq would be represented in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, if at all."
I will comment on this idea at length later. Suffice it to say that Iraq should not be a member of OPEC ever again. Whatever we can do to minimize the power of OPEC will do wonders to bring down the House of Saud or at least render it fair warning. And that is a good thing.
"After long debate, especially between the Pentagon and the State Department, the White House has rejected for now the idea of creating a provisional government before any invasion."
Somebody is showing some sense in Washington. Will it last?
"Officials involved in the planning caution that no matter how detailed their plans, many crucial decisions would have to be made on the ground in Iraq."
The Bush administration is showing some flexibility here. Good.
"Notably, the administration's written description of its goals include these two objectives: "preserve Iraq as a unitary state, with its territorial integrity intact," and "prevent unhelpful outside interference, military or nonmilitary," apparently a warning to neighboring countries."
Standard but necessary.
"When administration officials first began publicly discussing the idea of an American military administration for Iraq, the reaction in the Arab world was swift: The Arabs wanted no American Caesar in Iraq, no symbol of a colonial governor. "The last thing we need," a senior official said, in an allusion to General MacArthur, "is someone walking around with a corncob pipe, telling Iraqis how to form a government."
"It is widely assumed that in the first chaotic months, the military commander will have unquestioned authority. "Remember, you will have decapitated the command and control for the Iraqi military forces," a senior official said. "Who is going to make sure that score-settling does not break out, that there is not fights between the various ethnic communities? It is going to have to be the U.S. military for some period of time, and if there is a military command, there will certainly be a military commander."
Note my emphasis. That is why I think I a general with "proconsularimperium" is imperative.
"The administration is already anticipating that neighboring Arab nations may accuse occupied Iraq of pumping oil beyond OPEC quotas. One official said Washington "fully expects" that the United States will be suspected of undermining the oil organization . . . ."
Good. Undermine it. Get rid of it.
In the title of this post I alluded to the fact that I was willing to suspend judgment, temporarily. And I will. Before I say anything else I would encourage you to read these two essays, here and here.
I will be coming back to them at length.
Perhaps I'll be able to talk about something other than Korea in the next few days. I hope so, as the crisis seems to be abating, at least a little.
This is an important development, one that I have been calling for, for a long time. I am sure there are other Lefties that have been awaiting something like this. It is about time.
Posted by Sean-Paul @ 01/06/2003 12:17 AM
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Comments:
S-P:
I can't get through to the foreign affairs article. Check the link?
Frankly, the notion of the Shrub Administration engaged in "nation-building" strikes me as a truly frightening prospect. Never mind the fact that we have no experience....
I wonder how long it will take to get a Republican majority in Iraq?? If we stay there long enough, can it become te 51st state?? So many questions, so few answers....
Everyone knows this is just an imperialist war to colonise/occupy Iraq and its oil. Legally it will be a criminal invasion. Bush must know he will be criticised regardless of what he does, but the question is how much, and is it worth even trying to convince foreigners or should he just have the usual propaganda for domestic consumption?
Sean-Paul,
I am so proud of you. You suspend judgement very well. An excellent and well thought out piece!!!
To David & Jack and anyone else without a clue:
Please stop getting your news from Michael Moore and Barbra Streisand websites.
My God, men!!! Buy TV's - watch the news or C-span. Stop reading the New York Times it's rotting your brain!!
I have some t-shirt slogans for you "No blood for Oil" types...
Wear it to the next pro-Saddam rally you attend or should I say anti-war rally.
Whatever.
"No Blood For Liberation!"
"Opposition to Torture is Racism!"
"Totalitarianism Is Good For Children And Other Living Things!"
"Freedom Of Expression For White Americans - YES, For Brown Iraqis - NO!"
"No More Cultural Imperialism - Stop Liberty At OUR Borders!"
Sean-Paul it almost sounds like you are coming around to thinking that maybe the administration won't do this too badly after all.
Other than that I second Rosemary's comment.
